Predicting Pete Alonso’s Aging Curve: Insights from Scouts on the Mets’ Rising Star

How Will Pete Alonso’s Game Age Over the Next Three to Five Years?

The aging of Pete Alonso’s game is a topic of much intrigue and debate. As the New York Mets consider their roster for the upcoming season, Alonso’s status looms large. At 29, with one more year of arbitration and free agency on the horizon, the team must weigh his future value. To gain insight, The Athletic recently sought the opinions of eight scouts and executives from across the league.

Most of the evaluators agreed that Alonso’s power would continue to provide above-average offensive production for the next few years. However, when it comes to his mid-30s, there is some skepticism. One executive stressed the importance of keeping any potential deal short, citing the inherent risk.

Alonso’s power is undeniable, as he ranks third all-time in home runs in a player’s first five seasons. Yet, some evaluators raise questions about the reliability of his power as he ages. Studies on isolated power indicate that a player’s peak power performance occurs in their early-to-mid-20s, with a noticeable decline after 30.

Alonso, however, disagrees with the notion that surpassing 30 makes a player over the hill. He points to examples like Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, and Paul Goldschmidt, who have excelled in their 30s. He wants to age like wine, not milk.

Alonso takes his goals seriously and sets objectives before each season. In 2023, he focused on improving his performance in specific counts, and he achieved those goals. He also made improvements in his defense, attributing it to weight loss.

While some scouts acknowledge Alonso’s drive and ability to play every day, they also acknowledge that his skill set differs from players like Goldschmidt, Votto, and Freeman who aged well. Multiple scouts believe Alonso’s long-term value lies mostly in power and strike zone control. While he has excelled in power, there is room for growth in his walk rate and on-base percentage.

There is debate about whether the game is trending towards more speed or power, as new rules favoring speed and defense come into play. Alonso has made some improvements in those areas but remains below average. However, his raw power is undeniable.

Alonso prioritizes quality at-bats with a good approach, and home runs tend to happen naturally for him. He’s not an all-or-nothing slugger with high strikeout rates. He has the ability to adjust his approach and prioritize driving in runs.

For now, most evaluators believe that Alonso does enough outside of hitting home runs to have staying power in the league. He doesn’t strike out excessively and walks enough to contribute to his team’s success.

As Alonso unwinds this offseason and reflects on his performance, he plans to set new goals and continue improving. His future remains uncertain, but there is excitement about what he could accomplish in the next few years.


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