Picks, Predictions for Sunday’s South Point 400

I’m incredibly excited about the upcoming races.

The Next Gen car performs exceptionally well on 1.5-mile tracks like Las Vegas and Homestead, especially when tire wear becomes a factor, which will be the case at both of these circuits.

Tire wear also means that practice becomes a crucial indicator for projecting speed in the race. Therefore, I’m immediately delving into yesterday’s on-track activity to analyze NASCAR odds for Las Vegas, aiming to identify my top pick for Sunday’s South Point 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).

NASCAR Pick for Las Vegas

*NASCAR odds as of Sunday

Frankly, I find the betting line for today’s NASCAR race perplexing.

Now, that might prompt you to close this article right away, but I apologize—I just can’t resist taking a bet on Bubba Wallace at -115 to finish ahead of Joey Logano on Sunday afternoon.

As I mentioned earlier this week when also betting on Wallace to secure a top-10 finish, the 23XI Racing driver has displayed the fourth-best driver rating on 1.5-mile tracks, like Las Vegas, this year. He has also led the fifth-most laps and recorded the sixth-most fast laps.

On the other hand, Logano possesses only the 18th-best driver rating while ranking 24th in fastest laps run and 12th in laps led.

These statistics alone do not justify Wallace vs. Logano being listed as a pick’em matchup.

In addition, Wallace had a faster five-lap average in practice and will start two positions ahead of Logano.

Again, all these factors point towards this matchup not being a coin-flip situation.

Considering all these reasons, I’m placing my bet on Wallace’s Toyota to finish ahead of Logano’s Ford at Las Vegas.

The bet: Wallace -115 over Logano (BetMGM)

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