Picks, Predictions for Sunday’s 4EVER 400

Homestead-Miami Speedway is a popular track among NASCAR drivers and motorsports bettors due to tire wear and multiple grooves for passing.

The significant drop in speed as tires wear makes practice sessions more predictive, giving valuable insights into which drivers will perform well in Sunday’s 4EVER 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).

While I don’t completely ignore practice when building my betting card for today’s race, I heavily rely on past performance to find value in the NASCAR odds pick I’m about to detail.

Let me explain.

NASCAR Odds, Pick for Homestead

*NASCAR odds as of Sunday

Austin Dillon has had great success at Homestead, and his style of driving suits this track perfectly.

In his nine career Cup Series starts here, Dillon has finishes of 25th, 14th, 12th, 11th, 11th, eighth, seventh, 12th, and fourth.

Despite a less impressive finish in his first visit, Dillon has achieved eight top-15 finishes in the nine races, including three top-10 finishes in his last four.

What’s even more important is that his fourth-place finish came last season with the Next Gen car, showcasing his proficiency in the current vehicle.

Furthermore, Dillon qualified sixth for today’s race, securing a favorable track position.

The odds of +800 imply an 11.11% probability of winning, and considering Dillon has accomplished this feat in 33.33% of his career races and 75% of his last four races at Homestead, this bet is highly attractive.

Although I don’t expect Dillon to compete with the leaders, getting a driver with his track record, especially in recent races, and a great starting position at +800 NASCAR odds for a top-10 finish is an opportunity I can’t ignore.

The bet: Austin Dillon +800 for a Top-10 Finish (bet365)

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