Phillies, Nola Didn’t Come Close To Extension Last Offseason

The Philadelphia Phillies had a strong desire to extend the contract of their star pitcher, Aaron Nola, last winter.

In an interview with WIP-FM radio in January, the team’s president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, expressed their interest in keeping Nola long-term. Dombrowski stated, “We want Aaron to be a part of the organization for a long time. We value his skills and know that he enjoys being in Philadelphia. It’s a challenging process, but we are committed to keeping Aaron with us.”

About a month later, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that contract offers had been exchanged between the two sides. Then, in May, Jon Heyman of the New York Post disclosed that the Phillies’ offer was over $100 million, although it fell short of the $162 million deal Carlos Rodón received from the Yankees.

However, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, an agreement between Nola and the Phillies was never close. Nightengale revealed that the All-Star right-hander was seeking an eight-year contract worth over $200 million, significantly more than Rodón’s six-year, $162 million deal. The Phillies, on the other hand, were only willing to offer a four- or five-year contract.

Nola’s asking price is understandable. Nevertheless, it’s not surprising that the Phillies hesitated to commit to him until his age-38 season. Heading into the 2023 season, Nola appeared to be one of the top upcoming free agents, trailing only Shohei Ohtani in terms of value. Although Nola hasn’t reached the level of dominance demonstrated by Rodón and Jacob deGrom, he has been more durable and has consistently outperformed both pitchers in terms of Baseball Reference WAR since his first full season. Thus, it would require a substantial guarantee to convince Nola to forego free agency.

The Phillies have historically been cautious about signing pitchers to long-term deals. The largest contract they have ever given to a pitcher was a six-year, $144 million extension to Cole Hamels when he was 28 years old. Additionally, the biggest free agent contract they have awarded to a pitcher was a five-year, $120 million deal for Cliff Lee when he was entering his age-32 season. Therefore, an eight-year, $200 million extension for Nola would have been unprecedented for the organization.

Since Dombrowski took over as president of baseball operations, the Phillies have shown increased willingness to spend, surpassing the luxury tax in 2022 and signing multiple free agents to nine-figure deals in the past three offseasons. Dombrowski also has a track record of signing pitchers to high-value contracts during his tenure with the Tigers and Red Sox. However, even with these factors in play, the Phillies were not prepared to meet Nola’s extension demands last winter.

While it is still possible for Nola to return to the Phillies next season, it seems likely that he will explore free agency first. Despite his performance in 2023 resulting in a higher ERA (4.46 in 32 starts), Nola remains one of the most durable starting pitchers in the league. Furthermore, his underlying numbers suggest that his performance was not as poor as his ERA indicates, with a 3.75 SIERA, 3.77 xERA, and a 4.49 K/BB ratio. Nola has also performed exceptionally well in the postseason. As a result, the 2018 Cy Young finalist is expected to be highly sought-after in the free agent market, alongside Ohtani, Sonny Gray, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. In fact, the St. Louis Cardinals have already expressed interest in pursuing Nola this offseason.