Kyle Larson is favored over Ryan Blaney for the Cup Series title

Kyle Larson is the leading contender to capture the 2023 Cup Series championship.

Larson holds the advantage over Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Christopher Bell in the race for the Cup Series title at Phoenix (3 p.m. ET, NBC). If you’re interested in placing a bet on Larson to win the championship, there’s an opportunity for potential gains at BetMGM.

The rules for Sunday’s race are straightforward. If one of the four drivers competing for the title wins the race, they will be crowned the champion. If none of the four drivers win the race, the highest-finishing title contender will be declared the champion. However, in the previous nine seasons of NASCAR’s winner-take-all playoff format, the champion has always won the final race of the season.

Surprisingly, Larson has +160 odds to win the race at BetMGM, but +175 odds to win the title. The other title contenders have slightly greater odds to win the race compared to their odds to win the championship. If you plan to bet on Larson, it’s advisable to bet on him to win the championship. If you’re considering another driver to win the title, you may want to bet on them to win the race unless you believe this is the year the streak comes to an end.

Larson is the only driver among the four who has previously won a Cup Series title and one of just two drivers who have raced for a championship before. Larson claimed the 2021 Cup Series championship, while Bell is making his second consecutive appearance in the title race.

Blaney and Byron are the newcomers to the championship race. Blaney’s best previous finish in the standings was seventh place in both 2019 and 2021, while Byron finished sixth last season.

Byron has had the most successful season overall among the drivers competing for the title, with six wins, 14 top-five finishes, and 20 top-10 finishes. He faced some uncertainty at Martinsville but secured his place in the title race.

Byron’s first win this season came at Phoenix in the spring, and he has performed exceptionally well during the playoffs. Byron has not finished lower than 15th in any of the first nine postseason races and achieved a win at Texas.

Blaney won at Martinsville and has two victories in the last five races. After a slow start to the playoffs with just one top-10 finish in the first four races, Blaney has not finished lower than 12th in the last five races.

Bell enters the championship race as the underdog among the four drivers. After a 23rd-place finish at Darlington, he has not finished lower than 15th in the last eight races. He has also secured four pole positions in the playoffs, so don’t be surprised if he starts in the top position on Sunday.

Here’s what you need to know if you’re planning to bet on the championship race:

Cup Series title odds

• Kyle Larson (+175)

• Ryan Blaney (+225)

• William Byron (+275)

• Christopher Bell (+375)

Race favorites

• Kyle Larson (+160)

• Ryan Blaney (+250)

• William Byron (+300)

• Christopher Bell (+400)

• Kevin Harvick (+1400)

• Tyler Reddick (+1600)

Harvick is included in this group as he approaches the final race weekend of his Cup Series career before transitioning to the broadcast booth in 2024. Harvick boasts nine wins in 41 starts at Phoenix and is the only driver with an average finish inside the top 10 (8.6). Byron has recorded six top-10 finishes in 11 starts, while Blaney has finished in the top 10 in two-thirds of his 15 starts.

Larson has one win, seven top-five finishes, and 11 top-10 finishes in 18 starts at Phoenix. Bell has four top-10 finishes in seven starts. It’s worth noting that Reddick’s odds appear favorable, despite having only achieved third-place finishes at Phoenix, both of which occurred in the spring.

Good mid-tier value

• Denny Hamlin (+2000)

• Martin Truex Jr. (+2500)

Hamlin has secured two wins in 36 starts and boasts the third-best average finish of any driver at the track. Truex has just one win in 35 starts, but his strong performance towards the end of the season aligns well with his recent form.

Don’t bet on this driver

Briscoe has one win and three top-10 finishes in five starts at Phoenix and performed well at Martinsville. However, he is not high on our list of potential spoiler candidates.

Looking for a long shot?

Busch has the second-best average finish after Harvick and has achieved three wins. The playoffs have been challenging for Busch and Richard Childress Racing, but Phoenix provides an opportunity for a resurgence heading into 2024.