The NFC South has been a battleground for the New Orleans Saints and the powerhouses of the NFC South –Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the last six seasons. As we head into Week 13, the division standings have shifted dramatically.
The Atlanta Falcons are currently leading the NFC South after their victory over the Saints last week. This has left football fans questioning the outcome of the rest of the NFL campaign and how it will affect the playoff chances of the Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers.
NFC South Playoff Scenarios Ahead of Week 13
Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances
The Falcons hold the best odds to win the NFC South, with a 52% chance of making the playoffs according to the New York Times’ projection model. However, there is only a 5% delta between their playoff chances and their hopes of securing the division title, suggesting they are unlikely to be involved in the NFC’s tight Wild Card race.
The Falcons’ win against the Saints in Week 12 gave both teams identical 5-6 records, but Atlanta is now 3-0 in the division while New Orleans is 1-2. The NFC South could very well come down to Week 18, when the Falcons and Saints are set to square off in a regular-season finale that could decide who goes to the playoffs.
In a best-case scenario where the Falcons defeat the New York Jets, the Saints lose to the Detroit Lions, and the Carolina Panthers upset the Buccaneers, Atlanta’s playoff chances could jump almost 30 percentage points to 71%. On the other hand, if Atlanta loses while New Orleans and Tampa Bay win, its odds will fall to one in three.
New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances
The Saints’ chances at making the playoffs (43%) now trail Atlanta’s by nine percentage points after their loss to the Falcons last week, with a 34% chance of winning the division. However, New Orleans still has a chance to become the NFC South champion by winning out, including in its regular-season finale against Atlanta.
An upset over the Lions today would significantly increase the Saints’ playoff chances, shifting them to 62%. An accompanying Falcons loss would help, but not by much — roughly six additional percentage points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances
The Buccaneers have just a 20% chance of winning the NFC South and 7% odds to earn a Wild Card berth, with only a 3-1 record entering its Week 5 bye. They’ll need to string together a few wins to truly get back in the race.
A Buccaneers win over Carolina in Week 3 won’t make much of a difference on its own, as Tampa Bay’s playoff chances would only shift from 27% to 31%.
Pro Football Network has you covered with a FREE NFL Playoff Predictor, up-to-date NFL standings, team depth charts, and the NFL schedule.
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