James Trafford and a heated debate over who is Burnley’s No 1 goalkeeper

Two England games, three months apart, and two contrasting impressions of James Trafford for Burnley fans. The first occurred in July, during the Under-21 European Championship final against Spain. Trafford’s remarkable saves, including stopping a penalty and rebound in second-half stoppage time, helped secure a 1-0 victory and the championship title. This exceptional performance solidified Burnley’s decision to sign him for £19 million from Manchester City.

However, the second impression came more recently in a match against Ukraine, where England Under-21s were defeated 3-2. Trafford’s performance, particularly during the second Ukraine goal, left some fans skeptical about his ability. This debate intensified as supporters questioned whether Trafford or last season’s first choice, Arijanet Muric, should be the club’s number one goalkeeper.

The initial debate centered around Burnley’s decision to invest a significant fee in a 20-year-old goalkeeper when they already had a competent goalkeeper who had performed well in the club’s Championship season. Some fans believed that other areas of the squad needed more attention upon their return to the top flight. During the pre-season, Trafford made a few errors, including being lobbed from the halfway line in a match against Real Betis. In contrast, Muric had consistent performances in the warm-up friendlies.

Despite this, Trafford was selected as the starting goalkeeper for Burnley’s opening game against Manchester City and has remained a regular in the Premier League. Muric has only played in the Carabao Cup victories over Nottingham Forest and Salford City. Club sources have asserted that healthy competition for the starting goalkeeper position exists, and performances on the training pitch determine the selection.

Some sympathy has been expressed for Trafford as a young player who had limited experience playing at a higher level before this season. Starting as the goalkeeper for a newly-promoted team in the Premier League, especially in a challenging run of fixtures, has not been an easy task. Burnley’s defensive record, conceding 20 goals in eight league games, has placed them third-bottom in the league table. However, Trafford has not made a string of glaring errors leading to goals. Manager Vincent Kompany has praised his character, technical ability, and game understanding.

Statistically, Trafford has struggled, as shown by the table comparing the expected goals conceded to the actual goals conceded. Trafford has a score of -0.83, having conceded 19 goals from an expected goals (xG) value of 18.17. Only two other goalkeepers have prevented fewer goals than expected. However, as the season progresses, the pool of goalkeepers exceeding their expected goals is likely to decrease.

Last season, Trafford overperformed his xG score by preventing 5.5 more goals than expected while playing for Bolton. However, he also conceded 4.8 more goals than expected during the same season. These figures suggest that Trafford is still adjusting and gaining consistency at a higher level.

Passing and distribution are crucial qualities for goalkeepers in Kompany’s system. Trafford has been described as “ice cool” in possession and demonstrated confidence in his passing ability. He led all goalkeepers across England’s top four divisions in terms of touches and completed passes last season. However, when comparing his pass map to Muric’s, the latter has a higher success rate for long balls.

Muric initially faced criticism during his early matches for Burnley, with several errors leading to goals. However, he gradually won over supporters with his passing abilities and decreased mistakes. Trafford has yet to display similar distribution skills, but playing out from the back in League One or the Championship is distinct from doing it in the Premier League.

Trafford currently ranks 14th in passing accuracy among Premier League goalkeepers, with a rate of 74 percent. However, he leads the division in terms of passes attempted, averaging 50.4 per 90 minutes. Only Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen has a higher rate of successful passes per 90 minutes.

Kompany emphasizes the importance of consistency in all situations within the league. Although there have been some nervous moments for Trafford, none have resulted in conceding a goal. Furthermore, Burnley’s recent goals, such as the one against Chelsea, have originated from building play out from the back.

Initially, Burnley had pursued Verbruggen as their primary goalkeeper target. However, he chose to join Brighton instead. Verbruggen has already made high-profile errors while attempting to play out from the back against Bournemouth and Liverpool. Kompany is confident in Trafford’s abilities, and there are no indications suggesting an imminent change in the starting goalkeeper position.

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Olivia Wilson

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