WNBA Finals 2023 predictions, questions for Aces vs. Liberty

Oct 4, 2023, 09:00 AM ET

Seven out of the 18 WNBA Finals since the introduction of the best-of-five format in 2005 have reached a decisive Game 5. As the Las Vegas Aces take on the New York Liberty in the 2023 WNBA championship, both the top two seeds and preseason favorites, could we be in for another thrilling winner-take-all showdown?

This matchup boasts two superstars in their prime, A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces and Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty, as well as two teams with exceptional talent and strong team chemistry. The highly anticipated Finals will kick off this Sunday in Las Vegas at 3 p.m. ET, broadcasting on ABC/ESPN App.

The most recent five-game WNBA Finals occurred in 2019 when the Washington Mystics overcame the Connecticut Sun. This followed the pattern of the top two teams in the standings battling it out for the title, as seen in 2016 and 2017 with the Los Angeles Sparks and Minnesota Lynx.

During this season, the Liberty secured a victory over the Aces in the Commissioner’s Cup final, while they split their four regular-season meetings. Notably, the teams played each other four times in August, keeping the memory of those games fresh in their minds.

Throughout this series, fans will witness numerous No. 1 draft picks, MVPs, statistical leaders, and even individuals who possess all three titles.

Both coaches, Becky Hammon of the Las Vegas Aces and Sandy Brondello of the New York Liberty, have impressive backgrounds as former WNBA players. Hammon led the Aces to win the league title last year, while Brondello triumphed with the Phoenix Mercury in 2014.

The fan bases of these teams bring different perspectives to the table. Although the Aces’ franchise has been around since the inception of the WNBA in 1997 as the Utah Starzz, their time in Las Vegas has brought great success. Relocating from San Antonio to Las Vegas in 2018, they now make their third appearance in the Finals.

On the other hand, the New York Liberty is the only remaining original WNBA franchise yet to claim a championship. While the current Liberty players might not feel the weight of that historical burden, their loyal fans certainly do.

So, which superteam will emerge as the 2023 champion? Let’s turn to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, Alexa Philippou, and Michael Voepel as they preview the Finals.

The Finals matchup between the Liberty and Aces was highly anticipated. But one thing has surprised us in either a positive or negative way about these teams. What are your thoughts?

Voepel: Stewart’s struggles with shooting have been unexpected. In the regular season, she shot at 46.5% overall and 35.5% from beyond the arc. However, in the Liberty’s six playoff games, those percentages have dropped to 35.6% and 20.7%. Nonetheless, if she managed to get these misses out of her system before the Finals, it could bode well for the Liberty.

Philippou: Having covered the Liberty-Sun series in person, I witnessed New York’s remarkable ability to overcome a 0-1 deficit against a tough Connecticut squad and win three consecutive games, including two on the road at Mohegan Sun Arena. Various players stepped up at crucial moments for the Liberty, displaying their resilience and determination to close out the competitive series in just four games.

I’m surprised that the Liberty’s bench hasn’t received more playing time during the playoffs. Considering their depth, which seemed to be an advantage earlier this season, it’s intriguing to see if this will change against the Aces. Players like Kayla Thornton, with her toughness and energy, Marine Johannes, with her shooting prowess, and Stefanie Dolson, providing post depth, could make a significant impact. Johannes had an outstanding performance against the Aces in the Commissioner’s Cup final, but she has played only 42 minutes in the postseason thus far.

Pelton: Agreed with what Alexa mentioned earlier, Stewart’s slump in the postseason has caught many by surprise. In last year’s semifinals against the Las Vegas Aces, it was the first time a healthy Stewart was eliminated from the playoffs since 2017. Even then, she set a playoff record with 42 points in the final game of that hard-fought series. Throughout her career, from UConn to EuroLeague competitions, Stewart has consistently performed at her best when the stakes are high. This series presents the ultimate stage for her to shine, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she delivers.

Considering the regular-season series record (2-2 split) and the Liberty’s triumph in the Commissioner’s Cup final, how much weight should we give to these results?

Philippou: While the Finals represent a new series altogether, the regular-season matchups, especially those in August, provided valuable insights into how these teams match up. With that said, I anticipate A’ja Wilson bouncing back from her performance on August 6, when she scored only nine points on 2-for-14 shooting. Wilson tweeted after the game, “I doubt I’ll ever shoot 2-14 again I pray I don’t lol.” Since then, she has shot below 40% only once and has been performing at an incredibly high level over the past two months. The Liberty boasts formidable defenders in Stewart and Jonquel Jones, but they will have their hands full trying to contain Wilson.

Voepel: The Aces’ 98-81 victory over the Liberty on June 29 doesn’t hold much significance in this series, given that Candace Parker was still playing for the Aces, and Jonquel Jones wasn’t in the exceptional form she is now. However, the remaining four matchups, all in August, provide insight into what we can expect in the Finals. It’s worth noting that the Aces did not perform well in their previous game against the Liberty in Brooklyn, as well as their Commissioner’s Cup final clash in Las Vegas. These games will serve as crucial references for the Aces as they prepare, as they were far from their best on both occasions.

Pelton: It’s intriguing to note that head-to-head results haven’t been consistent predictors of Finals outcomes. Since the WNBA transitioned to a single playoff table in 2016 (excluding the shortened 2020 Wubble season), teams that won the regular-season series have only achieved a 2-4 record in the Finals. Furthermore, both of those winners, the 2018 Storm and last year’s Aces, had the advantage of home court in the Finals. However, the number of meetings between Las Vegas and New York prior to the Finals is unprecedented. Previous head-to-head series consisted of three games, while the Aces and Liberty have already faced each other five times this year.

The Aces and Liberty ranked first and second, respectively, in offensive rating, as well as first and third, respectively, in defensive rating this season. Which team will come out on top in the series: the more effective offensive team or the more impactful defensive team?

Pelton: Given the offensive firepower on both sides, the key factor will be which team can consistently make defensive stops. The Liberty had a perfect 15-0 record in the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs) when limiting opponents to 95 points per 100 possessions or fewer. One of those games was their blowout win against the Aces on August 6, where Las Vegas posted their worst offensive performance of the season in terms of points per possession. Conversely, the Liberty had an outstanding defensive display during that game.

Philippou: As both Kevin and Alexa rightly pointed out, defense will likely be the deciding factor in this series. Both coaches, Hammon and Brondello, firmly believe that defense wins championships. Beyond preventing opponents from scoring, defense, along with defensive rebounding, fuels the offense for these two teams, particularly on fast breaks.

The Aces boasted the best defensive rating in both the regular season and playoffs, but they allowed the Liberty to score at least 80 points in all their previous meetings, except for one on August 17, which was the only game Las Vegas won in their four matchups that month.

Voepel: Without a doubt, the Aces possess strong defensive players in A’ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes, with Stokes being the true defensive anchor. Additionally, Jackie Young is one of the league’s top defensive guards, capable of matching up against anyone with her 6-foot height. Sixth Player of the Year, Alysha Clark, brings versatility to their defense.

While it makes sense to assume defense will prevail in this series for all the reasons mentioned by Alexa and Kevin, we must also consider that the Aces can be an unstoppable offensive force. They can seize control of games with their offensive prowess. The Aces have won… [HTML tags retained]

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