Will Ohio State’s run of sluggish starts continue against Penn State?

The Penn State Nittany Lions make their way to the Shoe to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in a highly anticipated matchup between two of the Big Ten’s undefeated teams. With the race to reach the conference title game heating up, many have turned to the Buckeyes as the favorites, considering their eight consecutive wins over Penn State, four of which were by double-digit margins.

However, this year presents a different challenge. Let’s delve into the history of total points scored and how these teams typically perform against each other.

Game total history

In the past five games played in Columbus between Penn State and Ohio State, the average score has been 61 points. It’s worth noting that the initial game total for this matchup opened at 47 and has since dropped to 45.5. In the previous two years, the totals opened at 61.5 and 59.5, respectively. I agree with the downward movement in the line, but given the already low total, it’s crucial to secure the best number possible. Alternatively, betting on the under 10 points in the first quarter could be the optimal choice.

Ohio State’s sluggish starts

Prior to their game against Purdue, the Ohio State offense ranked 96th in first-quarter points scored, managing only two touchdowns. Moreover, they were shut out in the opening quarter during two consecutive games. These sluggish starts may persist, especially against higher-quality opponents.

In games against Indiana, Notre Dame, and Maryland, quarterback Kyle McCord threw for a combined 71 yards in the first quarter, completing nine out of 18 pass attempts. The Buckeyes’ offense only made two red-zone trips out of eight drives in those three games.

The Buckeyes’ slow starts contradict the usual tempo of Ryan Day’s offense. However, it’s important to remember that McCord is still a first-year starter. It’s not solely McCord’s responsibility; the rushing offense has also struggled, ranking in the bottom 15 in rushing attempts and gaining 10 or more yards on running plays. Furthermore, Ohio State ranks 92nd in penalties per game. The lack of a strong running game, an inexperienced quarterback, and a lack of discipline contribute to the Buckeyes’ slow offensive starts.

Penn State defense

According to PFF, James Franklin’s defense is graded as the fifth-best in the country. Critics may argue about the strength of their opponents, but when the Nittany Lions completely shut down their adversaries, those arguments hold little weight. In their victories over Iowa and UMass, Penn State surrendered a total of 185 yards, forced five turnovers, and allowed a mere 13 first downs. The Nittany Lions dominate weaker teams as expected.

If Penn State hopes to remain competitive against Ohio State, their best chance lies in the early stages of the game. They must aggressively target McCord right from the start. Penn State leads the nation in total quarterback pressures and ranks second in total sacks, largely thanks to defensive end Adisa Isaac. Their speedy and relentless defensive front has allowed a mere three points in first quarters this season.

If the Nittany Lions’ defense comes out strong, we can anticipate yet another slow start for the Buckeyes.

Why betting on the under instead of backing Penn State early?

Drew Allar is a decent quarterback, completing 65% of his passes. However, he ranks 70th in yards per pass (6.9 YPA) with an average depth of target of 6.6 (ranked 98th). These short, chunk plays won’t catch the Buckeyes defense off guard.

Although Ohio State may struggle on offense in the beginning of the game, their defense holds its ground in the first quarter, only allowing a total of 17 points (seven of which were given up to Maryland). Furthermore, if we discount the short field position obtained by Maryland at the Ohio State 30 after a turnover on downs, the Buckeyes have allowed just 10 points all season, keeping three opponents scoreless.

In their two road games against weaker opponents, Penn State managed to score a mere three field goals in the first quarter. Betting on the under for the early stages of the game is the recommended move.

As for the overall outcome, it’s harder to predict. Both offenses tend to pick up the pace and score more as the game progresses. They both rank within the top 30 in second-quarter points scored and within the top 15 in third quarter points. Ultimately, it will come down to which defense can stand firm for the full 60 minutes. If the game hinges on a decisive play, my trust would be placed in McCord, who proved himself in Ohio State’s victory over Notre Dame. Allar has not been tested in such circumstances. If a two-minute drill is required, I have faith in Ryan Day’s offense to deliver.