Twins future value big board: Ranking every player based on long-term upside

## Top Prospect Rankings Can Be Misleading: A Fresh Perspective on the Minnesota Twins’ Future Outlook

When evaluating the future outlook of an MLB organization, top prospect lists are often the default method used. However, these lists can be misleading at times. Take the case of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Louie Varland from the Minnesota Twins. They played enough games in the majors last season to surpass the eligibility thresholds for the Rookie of the Year Award. As a result, they lost their “prospect” labels. In the upcoming 2024 ranking of Twins prospects, none of these players will be included, making the farm system appear weaker. However, the truth is that nothing about these players has actually changed except for their labels. In fact, their substantial time in the big leagues and impressive performances make them even more crucial to the Twins’ future.

This is why, at the end of each season, I take a different approach. I combine prospects and non-prospects to create a ranking based on future value to the Twins, considering factors such as age and years of team control. For example, players like Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler may be considered some of the Twins’ best players, but their age and nearing free agency status reduce their future value compared to younger players, including prospects who have yet to make their debut. In a hypothetical organization-wide draft for the future, here’s my big board of the Twins’ most valuable players, taking into account age, upside, team control, and cost.

### 1. Royce Lewis, 3B
Age in 2024: 25
Years of team control: 5
Previous rank: No. 3

Royce Lewis was the first draft pick of the Derek Falvey-led Twins front office in 2017. The fact that he now tops this list, seven years later, wouldn’t have surprised anyone back then. However, the path Lewis has taken to get here has been filled with struggles, including injuries. Despite these challenges, Lewis has emerged even stronger and has showcased his ability to adapt. While he may have lost some speed, his newfound power has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations, with a .566 slugging percentage and 21 home runs in just 76 games for the Twins. There are still questions to be answered, particularly regarding his ability to avoid further injuries, but at only 24 years old, Lewis has the potential to become a star player for the Twins both on and off the field.

### 2. Walker Jenkins, CF
Age in 2024: 19
Years of team control: 6
Previous rank: N/A

In the recent MLB draft lottery, the Twins were fortunate enough to move up from the 13th to the 5th pick. This stroke of luck led them to Walker Jenkins, a highly-touted high school center fielder from North Carolina. Jenkins signed a team-record $7.1442 million bonus and quickly lived up to the hype in his professional debut. From the rookie-level Florida Complex League to Low-A Fort Myers, he showcased his skills with a .362 batting average, .417 on-base percentage, .571 slugging percentage, three home runs, 12 extra-base hits, and six steals in just 26 games. Jenkins is now considered the top prospect in the Twins’ farm system, which also boasts two other highly-regarded players in the top 100 prospects nationwide. While it’s still early, his immense potential suggests that he may become a consensus top-10 prospect by the middle of the season. The Twins truly lucked out with this acquisition.

### 3. Brooks Lee, SS
Age in 2024: 23
Years of team control: 6
Previous rank: No. 1

Brooks Lee, who topped last year’s prospect list, drops two spots this year through no fault of his own. In fact, the 2022 first-round pick had an impressive first full season, batting .292 with a .365 on-base percentage, .476 slugging percentage, 42 extra-base hits, and 41 walks in 87 games at Double-A. This performance earned him a promotion to Triple-A after just 12 months since being drafted. While Lee had a slow start at St. Paul, he finished strong with a .252/.323/.460 slash line in his final 35 games. He has shown great control at the plate, consistently hitting line drives and displaying a good eye. Lee has the potential to become a quality regular player, and his future may depend on his ability to tap into his power consistently and establish his defensive position. Although he is currently a shortstop, he may find himself at second base in the long run due to the presence of Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis.

### 4. Edouard Julien, 2B
Age in 2024: 25
Years of team control: 6
Previous rank: No. 18

The Twins seem to have an abundance of high-upside young infielders, and Edouard Julien is one of them. After two impressive seasons in the minors, Julien made his debut in the majors and showcased his plate discipline and opposite-field power against big-league pitchers. In 109 games, he hit .263 with a .381 on-base percentage, .459 slugging percentage, 16 home runs, and 64 walks. Remarkably, Julien swung at only 14.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, the lowest rate in the MLB. This exceptional eye for the strike zone is a strong foundation for success. Furthermore, his defensive improvement at second base should not be overlooked. Julien has worked tirelessly to transform himself from a player with defensive question marks to someone who is now considered decent at the position. With the ability to draw walks, hit for power, and grind at-bats, Julien has the potential to be a modern leadoff man. His development as an 18th-round pick from Canada is an incredible success story.

### 5. Pablo López, SP
Age in 2024: 28
Years of team control: 4
Previous rank: N/A

Pablo López is the first of several players on this list whose contracts play a crucial role in their value. As a front-line starting pitcher coming off a breakout season, López is arguably one of the Twins’ best players. Thanks to a contract extension signed in April, he is under team control for four more years. However, the terms of the extension will pay him a substantial amount, with $8 million in 2024 and $21.5 million in each of 2025, 2026, and 2027. While López’s performance justifies this salary, it’s important to consider the relative value compared to younger players who are still on minimum salaries. López has the potential to outperform anyone on this list over the next four seasons, but his salary of $73.5 million during that time is significantly higher than Julien’s approximate $5 million. This is not a knock against López, but rather a reflection of the pre-free agency salary system in MLB, which often leads to good young players being underpaid. The Twins made a bold move in trading Luis Arraez for López and further demonstrated their belief in him by extending his contract after just four starts. As a result, they now have a playoff-tested No. 1 starter with a team-friendly contract through 2027.

### 6. Jhoan Duran, RP
Age in 2024: 26
Years of team control: 4
Previous rank: No. 2

Jhoan Duran had an incredible rookie year, but his control issues prevented him from replicating that success entirely. However, he still showed dominance when he was able to throw strikes. Duran saved 27 games with a 2.45 ERA in his first full season as a closer. In comparison to the previous year, his batting average against remained the same at .207. With shaky control aside, Duran has proven to be an effective and reliable closer. Looking ahead, he has four more years of team control, giving the Twins stability in the bullpen.

Reference

David Rodriguez

David Rodriguez brings the excitement of Major League Baseball to readers. With a deep appreciation for America’s pastime, he covers the latest MLB news, scores, and player achievements, keeping fans up to date with their favorite teams and players.