The Vikings are the unluckiest team in the NFL. Will that change tonight?

As a Vikings fan, you might use terms like “stone hands” or “butterfingers” to describe their performance. Ultimately, one could argue that the Vikings got what they deserved.

However, from the perspective of an NFL data scientist, the 2023 Vikings have experienced an immense amount of bad luck during their 2-4 start. In fact, they are considered the unluckiest team in the NFL when you combine four key metrics, and even in many cases when you examine them individually.

This statistical analysis provides an intriguing way to quantify the concept of “Football Gods,” a topic that Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse frequently discusses on my guest appearance on Monday’s Daily Delivery podcast.

The Gophers experienced some of this Football God luck on Saturday during their 12-10 victory over Iowa. However, a controversial overturned punt return for a touchdown does not factor into Tom Bliss’ luck calculation, despite feeling like it would typically go against the Gophers in 99% of all simulations.

Bliss, an NFL data scientist, breaks down luck into four quantifiable categories: opponent dropped interceptions, opponent dropped passes, opponent field goals and extra points made or missed, and fumble recoveries by either team.

The underlying idea is that these factors contain elements of randomness and are outside a team’s control. The extent to which they influence a team’s win probability provides a measure of their luck, or lack thereof.

Remarkably, the Vikings rank last in win probability added in three of the four luck metrics: opponent dropped interceptions, opponent dropped passes, and fumble recoveries. They also rank seventh-worst in opponent kicking.

When you combine these factors, the Vikings’ win probability has decreased by 133.5% through the first six games. The next-worst team is only at 88.7%.

One particular play, an interception off the hands of T.J. Hockenson in the Chargers game, single-handedly impacted win probability more than any other play this season in the NFL. This play alone contributes to the Chargers holding the top spot in the luck standings with a plus-166.5%.

However, other factors, such as the Vikings’ league-leading nine fumbles lost, play significant roles in their poor luck as well.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Vikings were ranked fifth in luck last season during their successful 13-4 campaign.

To turn their fortunes around, the Vikings will need better luck and to make their own luck, starting with their game against San Francisco on Monday.

Here are four more things to know today:

*If you’re looking for something to be happy about as a Vikings fan, “Packers face harsh reality of 2023 season after abysmal offensive showing” should bring a smile to your face.

*In the ALCS, the road team has won all six games so far. Tonight, it’s Texas at Houston in Game 7. You can switch over to that during breaks in the Vikings/49ers game.

*For those who prefer an alternative to the regular broadcast of Monday Night Football, you can check out the Manning Cast on ESPN2. Personally, I’ll be tuning into that one.

*On Tuesday’s show, I’ll be joined by Star Tribune Wolves writer Chris Hine to preview the upcoming Wolves season. If you’re interested, here’s a recent piece he wrote about Rudy Gobert. Additionally, we’ll be keeping an eye on whether Jaden McDaniels receives a contract extension before today’s deadline.