The biggest surprises (good and bad) of the season so far

Four weeks into this fantasy basketball season, it’s time to grapple with (or maybe slam dunk, if you’re Draymond Green) the unexpected twists and turns of fantasy basketball.

Here are six players who have surprised me in the world of fantasy hoops — from those exceeding expectations to those who are falling short. Let’s dig in.

The Good!

Scottie Barnes – SF/PF, Toronto Raptors

My expectations were high for Barnes coming into the season, but he’s performing at a level that I never anticipated. His current production is reaching rare territory, where he’s putting up numbers that only DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Garnett and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar have reached.

(In case you need reminding, prime Boogie was a force to be reckoned with.)

Barnes’ versatility on both ends of the court has turned him into the ideal fantasy basketball player. His rookie season was outstanding, beating out Evan Mobley and Cade Cunningham to win Rookie of the Year. Fantasy managers were so impressed that they drafted him aggressively ahead of the ’22-23 season, only to be disappointed by his performance relative to his ADP.

But under new HC Darko Rajaković, he’s been unleashed as a stat-stuffing machine. With over 20 points per game, big man-like rebounding, guard-like assists, and top-tier defense, this significant leap in performance will likely earn him an All-Star appearance and possibly the Most Improved Player award.

RJ Barrett – SG/SF, New York Knicks

He’s defying expectations. The fifth-year forward has overcome his previous struggles with efficiency, shooting almost 49% from the field, 50% from three, and 85% from the free throw line in seven games.

Breaking into the 95th percentile in three-point percentage is unprecedented, and while it may not be sustainable, it’s a surprising development that many didn’t forecast.

Luguentz Dort – SG/SF, Oklahoma City Thunder

I have numerous fantasy teams, and Dort wasn’t on any of them. I assumed there would be no room for anyone to shine in OKC once rookie phenom Chet Holmgren hit the court. Moreover, Dort had never shown potential for a significant offensive leap — historically, he’s been a terrible shooter. Before this season, his highest shooting splits were 40/34/77. I even suggested that Cason Wallace take over his starting spot after witnessing Wallace’s performance in the Vegas Summer League.

However, his recent performance has made me eat my words. Like Barrett, Dort has significantly enhanced his efficiency. His shooting splits have improved to 49/47/80, a remarkable feat. While his stats haven’t changed much in points leagues, in category leagues, he’s currently a top 50 player. His defensive numbers have also seen a substantial boost, averaging over a block and a steal per game.

Despite his exceptional start, his value is likely to decrease soon, although his defensive numbers seem sustainable. He’s a prime candidate for selling high.

The Bad!

Jaden McDaniels – SF/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves

I had high hopes for McDaniels as one of my breakout picks this season, but his offensive usage and production have fallen short to the point where I’m considering dropping him in 12-team category leagues.

While he’s still shooting a solid 55% from the field, his stocks are nowhere to be found. His low scoring rate was always a concern for points leagues, and with his points, rebounds, and assists declining from last year, there seems to be little upside despite his extension with the emerging Minnesota Timberwolves.

Markelle Fultz – PG, Orlando Magic

Injuries are an unfortunate reality in the game, and my shares of Fultz are decreasing rapidly. He continues to be listed as day-to-day with tendonitis in his left knee, with swelling from his surgically repaired knee adding to the concerns.

Fantasy managers have been frustrated by the pattern of Fultz being listed as questionable on the injury report, only to be ruled out last-minute. This has not met expectations, especially for a player in a contract year who’s contributing to an improved Orlando Magic squad.

While it’s still early, if you don’t have an IL spot, it might be time to let go of Fultz.

Jordan Poole – PG/SG, Washington Wizards

He’s a buy-low candidate, but I understand if you’re hesitant to attend the Poole party. He’s been underperforming significantly. I initially ranked him just outside the top 50, expecting the version of Jordan Poole who thrived whenever Steph Curry was off the court. However, whether it’s due to being unfocused, playing for a team with no winning culture, or opponents targeting him, Poole has been a major letdown in fantasy.

His minutes, scoring, rebounding, FG%, FT%, and 3PM have all declined. While he may need more time to adapt to his new team and role, it’s essential to monitor his performance before making any decisions.

Poole thrived playing alongside Hall-of-Famers, something that can’t be said for his current teammates Gafford and Kuzma.