Swiatek or Pegula? Navratilova and Evert make their WTA Finals picks

CANCUN, Mexico — Chris Evert was excitedly browsing through the match notes of the GNP Seguros WTA Finals, marveling at the incredible achievements of the talented finalists.

“The way they have played, anything is possible,” Evert exclaimed.

On Monday (4:30 p.m. local time), the Hologic WTA Tour will witness its last match of the 2023 season, which will determine the year-end No.1 ranking. If No.2 Iga Swiatek wins against No.5 Jessica Pegula in the championship, she will regain the top spot she held for 75 weeks. However, if Pegula emerges victorious, Aryna Sabalenka will become the year-end No.1 for the first time.

This scenario, where the No.1 ranking could change hands at the WTA Finals, has occurred only five times this century. The last instance was in 2009 when Serena Williams overtook Dinara Safina.

Swiatek kept her hopes alive on Sunday night with an impressive 6-3, 6-2 victory over Sabalenka. Pegula, on the other hand, triumphed over her doubles partner Coco Gauff with a commanding 6-2, 6-1 win in the first semifinal on Saturday night.

Pegula has been flawless in Estadio Paradisus, winning all four of her matches after losing all three of her matches at last year’s WTA Finals in Fort Worth. She has defeated No.1-ranked Sabalenka, No.3 Gauff, No.4 Elena Rybakina, and No.9 Maria Sakkari, and now she sets her sights on No.2 Swiatek.

“Having two wins over Iga this year gives me a lot of confidence,” Pegula told reporters. “But I know that when she’s in form, she can dominate anyone. And it seems like she’s on fire right now.”

The head-to-head record favors Swiatek, 5-3, but Pegula emerged as the winner in their most recent encounter, a three-set semifinal in Montreal this summer.

Swiatek describes Pegula as a complete player.

“She’s solid and excels in every aspect of the game,” Swiatek said. “Moreover, she displays maturity and utilizes it effectively. But I am aware of my abilities. I will be prepared for the challenge.”

We consulted Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova, ambassadors of the WTA Finals in Cancun and 18-time Grand Slam singles champions, to hear their predictions for Monday’s final.

Navratilova and Evert competed against each other a record 80 times throughout their careers. Let’s make it 81:

The case for Swiatek

Evert: “In the past few weeks, she has shown significant improvement, winning the title in Beijing and reaching this final. Iga had disappointing performances at Wimbledon and the US Open, but she is determined to finish the year strongly. I believe she has what it takes to pull off the victory. Some may be disappointed with her 2023 season because she only won one major title at Roland Garros, but let’s not overlook the bigger picture: she’s just 22 years old. If she wins this and finishes the year as the No.1, she should be named the Player of the Year, in my opinion.”

Notable stat: Swiatek has won more matches (67) and titles (5) than any other player on tour this year. Her 67 wins equal her total from last year.

The case for Pegula

Evert: “Wow! After losing all her matches last year in Fort Worth, going 0-6 in singles and doubles combined, she has shown incredible resilience to reach this stage. She has been consistently remarkable throughout her matches in Estadio Paradisus. The only concern is her fatigue. She has played over 120 matches this year in singles and doubles. At this point, it’s more of a mental challenge for her. Can she win this? Absolutely.”

Notable stat: Pegula has lost only 22 games en route to the final, despite facing the World No.1, No.3, and No.4. If she plays against No.2 Swiatek on Monday, she will become the first player since the publication of WTA Rankings in 1975 to face the World No.1, No.2, No.3, and No.4 in a single event.

And the winner will be…

Navratilova: Pegula

“She remains unbeaten and is playing with a high level of confidence. She has shown composure in these conditions, and that mindset will help her secure a close victory over Iga.”

Notable stat: Pegula has a perfect record of 51-0 this season when she wins the first set. Along with Rybakina, she is one of only two players to have defeated Swiatek twice this year.

Evert: Swiatek

“The No.1 ranking is at stake, and Iga will settle for nothing less. She came to this tournament with the goal of reclaiming the top spot, and she won’t stop until she achieves it in the final.”

Notable stat: Swiatek has a 16-4 record in finals. In their only meeting in a tournament final, Swiatek defeated Pegula 6-3, 6-0 in Doha earlier this year.