Should you fade A’ja Wilson in the WNBA Finals?

A’ja Wilson undoubtedly ranks as the most exceptional player in the WNBA at present. However, her performance against the New York Liberty this season has been considerably subpar. Additionally, when it comes to betting, her output has been inconsistent at times. This inconsistency stems not from any lack of talent on her part, but rather from the fact that as the Las Vegas Aces dominate their opponents, Wilson doesn’t need to play as many minutes.

Nevertheless, this is not the primary issue when facing the Liberty. Therefore, as we approach the WNBA Finals, let’s closely examine how to bet on Wilson as she strives for her second championship ring, aiming to secure her position as a two-time MVP.

The Argument Against A’ja Wilson’s Point Production

Wilson has failed to score over 23 points in any of the five games against the Liberty. Surprisingly, her over/under for Game 1 is set at 23.5 points. Will a player of Wilson’s caliber stay under this threshold for an entire series, especially during the Finals? It seems highly unlikely. Nevertheless, it’s worth mentioning that the Liberty is the only team in the WNBA to hold Wilson to under 10 points in multiple games this season, with only one other team achieving this feat. Her point totals against the Liberty, listed in descending order, are as follows: 23, 21, 16, 9, and 9. Notably, the most recent meeting between the two teams on August 28 resulted in a victory for the Liberty. During that month, Wilson had two nine-point performances—one on 2-of-14 shooting in a memorable 38-point loss against the Liberty on August 6, and another in the Commissioner’s Cup Final nine days later, shooting 2-for-10 from the field in a game that the Liberty won 82-63. Wilson has struggled with a shooting percentage of just 43.5% against the Liberty across these five games. Moreover, Wilson primarily scores two-point shots and free throws, with limited volume on the latter. In the five games against the Liberty, she has made 19 of 23 free throws. Therefore, it is unlikely that she will surpass the point threshold.

The Argument Against A’ja Wilson’s Rebounds

Now, let’s turn our attention to Wilson’s rebounding performance. The statistics from the five games against the Liberty are as follows: 8, 8, 7, 5, and 3 rebounds. Interestingly, Wilson’s over/under for rebounds in Game 1 has been set at either 10.5 or 9.5, and she has yet to exceed either mark against the Liberty. Will she finally surpass this threshold in the upcoming game? It’s difficult to say. Considering the formidable Jones and Stewart frontcourt, as well as Wilson’s previous rebounding challenges, it is reasonable to approach her rebounding overs cautiously. Although Wilson’s exceptional abilities may eventually prevail, it is unlikely to occur in Game 1, and I would advise against betting on her rebounding frequency at first glance.

The Case for Wilson’s Greatness to Overcome the Odds

Despite the challenging match-up against the Liberty—one of the best teams in the WNBA—Wilson is currently in exceptional form. In the playoffs alone, she is averaging 25.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks per game, with shooting percentages of 59.5% from the field and 82.9% from the free throw line. In three playoff games, she has surpassed both the 30-point mark and the 10.5 rebounds mark, accomplishing this feat twice in the same game. Expanding the timeframe to August 31, Wilson has achieved at least 26 points in seven of her last nine games and has secured 10 or more rebounds on five occasions (with four instances of 11 or more rebounds). She is undoubtedly an exceptional player and has already proven her championship credentials. However, this match-up against the Liberty poses a significant challenge due to their formidable frontcourt and their status as one of the league’s top teams. Nevertheless, Wilson’s greatness cannot be underestimated.

Bets to Keep an Eye On

In my opinion, for the Aces to win, they need to rely heavily on their shooters. Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young have been exceptional from the perimeter during the playoffs. Plum has maintained a shooting percentage of 42.1% from beyond the arc, attempting an average of 7.6 shots per game. Young follows closely behind with a shooting percentage of 41.4% on 5.8 attempts. Alysha Clark has been the team’s best three-point shooter, with a 42.9% shooting percentage on 2.8 attempts per game. In contrast, Chelsea Gray has struggled from three-point range, shooting just 33% on 3.0 attempts per game.

In the previous two victories over the Liberty, Wilson was not the primary contributor. For example, in their 98-81 win on June 29, Wilson scored 16 points, but the team relied on Plum’s 18 points, with five starters scoring at least 14 points. Wilson attempted the fewest field goals among the starters, taking only nine shots. Furthermore, the team shot 9-of-25 from three-point range (36%). Similarly, in their 88-75 victory over the Liberty on August 17, Wilson scored 21 points on 7-of-13 shooting, but the team was carried by Gray, who scored 22 points (alongside 11 assists) on 10-for-22 shooting. Of note, Plum attempted one more shot than Wilson, despite Wilson leading the team in regular season and playoff shot attempts and usage.

The bets I recommend monitoring are as follows:

• Under on Wilson’s points: The current line is set at 23.5 points. Until Wilson has a breakthrough game, it is wise to bet on her remaining under this threshold. Even if she does have a breakout performance, it is unlikely that she will consistently score high throughout the series.

• Under on Wilson’s rebounds: If the line is set at 10.5 rebounds, I recommend betting on the under for now. If it is set at 9.5 rebounds, I would still advise caution but with less confidence.

• Over on Plum and Young’s three-pointers: Young’s line for Game 1 is set at 1.5, and the odds are -162 on FanDuel. This line may change, so stay updated. Plum’s line has been set at over 2.5 in each of her last three games. While I wouldn’t bet on this in every single game, I would consider it for Game 1 and adjust my approach accordingly.