I have some exciting news to share: I recently won big by betting on Tom Kim in the Shriners Children’s Open at +1200. This victory brings my record to one win out of two events, with both players finishing in the top 20.
Now that I’ve counted the 12 units I won from Kim, it’s time to focus on the upcoming ZOZO Championship. This year, the tournament will be hosted at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, featuring a par 70 course spanning 7,079 yards. With only 78 players in the field and no cut, this is a unique event.
Given the limited data available, I have identified key metrics for building my betting models:
Strokes Gained: Approach
SG: Around the Green
ZOZO Championship Bets
Rickie Fowler to Win +1800 0.75 units
I found this favorable price for Rickie Fowler on Pinnacle, making him a golfer worth betting on. As a rule, if a golfer ranks first in my model, I must bet on them at a reasonable price. My model focuses on players who excel in driving, hitting greens, and making birdies. I also consider their ability to scramble in case they miss greens.
Fowler ended his drought last season and showcased great golf skills. It’s no surprise that he tops my model, ranking 16th in Driving Distance, 12th in Opportunities Gained, ninth in SG: Approach, and second in SG: Around the Green over the previous 36 rounds. Although Fowler didn’t play at this course last season, he performed well in Japan, finishing T2. If he maintains his high level of play, his odds of 18/1 might seem low in smaller field events.
Min Woo Lee to Win +2200 0.5 units
Earlier this week, I recommended betting on Min Woo Lee on my X.com page. While the current odds are around +1800 on most books, I wouldn’t bet beyond +1800. Lee is an exciting golfer at this course due to his recent victory on the Asian Tour. He’s a great fit for this course, being long off the tee (second in the field) and having excellent skills around the greens. After some strong performances last season, this could be the year he becomes scorching hot.
Adam Scott to Win +3300 0.5 units
I have rarely bet on Adam Scott in the past two seasons, but his strong performance on my model and great price as a former World No.1 make him a tempting choice. Scott excels off the tee, providing himself with plenty of birdie opportunities. He ranks third in both Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Putting, as well as eighth in Opportunities Gained and showing solid skills around the greens. With a solid season behind him, Scott is an appealing pick.
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Keegan Bradley to Win +2700 0.5 units
Despite Tom Kim’s successful title defense last week, I believe Keegan Bradley, one of the best ball strikers in golf, has a chance to perform well in the ZOZO Championship. As someone who was not picked for the Ryder Cup, Bradley is driven to prove himself. With two wins last season, he should have been an obvious choice to represent the US team. However, Bradley’s skills off the tee and on approach make him a formidable competitor. My model ranks him in the top 10.
Cam Davis Top 20 (-135) 2 units
Prioritize betting on a book without dead heat rules, such as BetMGM Sportsbook, where ties are paid in full. Cam Davis has been on fire since the 3M Open last season, finishing inside the top 20 in his previous six events (excluding the staggered start BMW Championship). In fact, each of these top 20 finishes was within the top 10. Davis ranks fourth in Strokes Gained over the last 36 rounds, showcasing strength off the tee and in approach. Even his putting has been excellent. Last week, I considered him a potential winner of the Shriners Children’s Open but was deterred by the odds. Don’t be surprised if Davis vies for the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Daniel Miller takes readers to the greens with his passion for golf. He offers coverage of major golf tournaments, player achievements, and insights into the sport’s rich history, making him a trusted source for golf enthusiasts.