NFL 2023 midseason report — AFC, NFC questions and stats

Midseason Reset: What We Know Now After Nine Weeks of NFL Action

As the dust settles on the first nine weeks of the 2023 NFL season, some teams find themselves riding high with newfound optimism while others are forced to confront the harsh realities of a challenging campaign. What was once suspected has largely been confirmed — Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts continue to impress, the NFC South is a toss-up, and the Arizona Cardinals are struggling to find their footing. However, along with these revelations come the unforeseen events such as injuries to Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, the unexpected decline of the New England Patriots and New York Giants, and the impressive rookie performance of C.J. Stroud.

For a comprehensive look at the midseason reset, ESPN’s 32 NFL team reporters share their insights on what they’ve learned through the first half of the season, as well as what to expect over the ensuing nine weeks and beyond. Each team’s current odds to win the division or reach the playoffs, along with their standings in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, are also included.

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CINCLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | INDJAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MINNE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SFSEA | TB | TEN | WSH

AFC EAST
FPI rank: 3
Chances to make the playoffs: 57.6%
Chances to win their division: 27%

What we know: The Buffalo Bills’ defense has proven to be a formidable force, ranking No. 5 in scoring defense, despite being plagued by key player injuries. However, the defense’s performance has waned recently, allowing significantly more yards per game since the fifth week of the season compared to the early weeks. The big question facing the Bills is whether their offense can find consistency. With a struggling running game and quarterback Josh Allen racking up interceptions, the Bills’ offensive unit holds the key to their success for the rest of the season.

Stat that defined the first half: The Bills’ offense has been slow to get going in the first half of games, averaging just 6.8 points per game since Week 5. However, they rally in the second half, scoring 13.4 points per game, showcasing their potential when under pressure. — Alaina Getzenberg

FPI rank: 5
Chances to make the playoffs: 93.1%
Chances to win their division: 71.1%

What we know: The Miami Dolphins have showcased an explosive offense, leading the NFL in yards and points production. Their efficiency in the red zone is a standout feature, with a league-best 75% scoring rate inside the 20-yard line. Defensively, the Dolphins have picked up momentum after a slow start to the season and are regaining full strength with key players returning.

What we don’t know yet: Can the Dolphins win against top-tier opponents? Despite their offensive prowess, Miami is yet to secure a win against quality teams — a hurdle they need to overcome to prove their potential in the playoffs.

Stat that defined the first half: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been impressively well-protected, being sacked at a career-low 4.3% of his dropbacks. Keeping him upright has been crucial to the Dolphins’ offense thriving this season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

FPI rank: 26
Chances to make the playoffs: 0.3%
Chances to win their division: Less than 0.1%

What we know: The New England Patriots are currently at the bottom of the AFC, facing a steep challenge to reach the playoffs and needing a talent boost. Their offense has been a major setback, starting slow and grappling with turnovers early in the season. Injuries to impactful players have also hampered their defense, widely considered the team’s strong suit.

What we don’t know yet: How will this season impact the future of head coach Bill Belichick? With Belichick closing in on an NFL all-time record for total victories, the question isn’t just when but if he will accomplish the feat as the Patriots’ coach.

Stat that defined the first half: Ranking 31st in points per game, the Patriots’ offense has struggled to find its rhythm despite high expectations following the arrival of offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. A myriad of factors, from inconsistency in the offensive line to limited talent among receivers, have contributed to their disappointing performance. — Mike Reiss

FPI rank: 24
Chances to make the playoffs: 8%
Chances to win their division: 1.9%

What we know: The New York Jets have faced a daunting task of navigating the season without their star quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, having been sidelined with an injury since Week 1. The offensive struggles have been evident, with the team finding it challenging to produce more than one touchdown in a game.

What we don’t know yet: Will Rodgers make a triumphant comeback from his injury? The team’s offensive woes may hinder Rodgers’ return, warranting caution to avoid risking further injury. This storyline hangs in the balance, subject to the Jets’ ability to remain competitive in the coming games.

Stat that defined the first half: The Jets have scored only eight touchdowns in nine games, demonstrating their shortcomings in offensive production. Their recent games have seen minimal touchdown drives, reflecting the dire state of their offense. — Rich Cimini

AFC NORTH
FPI rank: 2
Chances to make the playoffs: 95.7%
Chances to win their division: 74.6%

What we know: The Baltimore Ravens have emerged as formidable contenders for the Super Bowl. Quarterback Lamar Jackson’s stellar performance has positioned him as a frontrunner for the MVP title, leading the league in completion rate and rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ defense has excelled, conceding an average of only 13.8 points per game while topping the league with 35 sacks.

What we don’t know yet: Can Jackson avoid injury? In the past few seasons, the Ravens have faltered in December following injuries to Jackson. To ensure their sustained success, the Ravens will need to protect Jackson to prevent a repeat of their past setbacks.

Stat that defined the first half: The Ravens’ impressive victories in recent weeks, beating two division leaders by a combined score of 75-9, have cemented their position as a force to be reckoned with in the NFL. — Alaina Getzenberg.

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