NASCAR DFS: 4EVER 400 Daily Fantasy Preview and Picks

If you’re looking for an action-packed way to enjoy sports on the weekend, NASCAR offers a thrilling avenue to explore. It’s much more than just driving in circles. Some of the world’s best drivers compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are ultimately scored based on their finishing positions in the race, the number of spots they advance from their starting position, and the number of laps they complete and lead. However, it’s crucial to avoid drivers who crash out of the race. For fantasy NASCAR advice, FanDuel Research is your go-to source. Additionally, Jim Sannes provides insights on the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

Now, let’s dive into a preview of this weekend’s 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1 at Homestead-Miami Speedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

Practice
Saturday, October 21st
9:05 A.M. EST

Qualifying
Saturday, October 21st
10:05 A.M. EST

Last weekend’s winner might have a significant impact on this weekend’s outlook. If Kyle Larson hadn’t secured his spot in the championship race two weeks ago with a win at Las Vegas, he would have been a formidable competitor at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In last year’s Miami race, Larson demonstrated his dominance by finishing over two laps ahead of almost all other drivers. His style is a perfect fit for this worn, 1.5-mile oval track where the ideal racing line is close to the wall without touching it. This race promises to be a thrilling event, especially considering the performance of this package on intermediate tracks throughout the year.

Though practice and qualifying are scheduled much earlier than the race, the early-morning session may not be as reliable due to the hotter and slicker track conditions that will be present on Sunday.

General Lineup Strategy

This weekend features back-to-back races on a 1.5-mile track, creating a similar strategy to the previous week. The race consists of 267 laps, offering 26.7 potential points on FanDuel.

Last week, our recommended tactics proved effective. It was crucial to select drivers at the front of the grid who could lead laps. In fact, the front-row starters, Larson and Christopher Bell, led a combined total of 194 laps out of 267. Brad Keselowski, who led 38 laps, also made it into the perfect lineup.

Another interesting trend on 1.5-mile tracks this season is that only Keselowski managed to finish in the top 10 starting outside the top 15. This suggests that the best cars tend to gravitate towards the front by the end of the race, even with more on-track passing opportunities. Therefore, it’s important to identify drivers who rank highly in this week’s rankings and show competitive times during practice. Look for drivers who have the potential to dominate the event and aim to select the fastest cars available in value spots. While drivers like Daniel Suarez may not qualify well, they can still be strong contenders, as evidenced by last week’s race where Suarez finished 15th after starting in the 36th position.

Driver Rankings

Here are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on their equipment, recent form, track history, and overall talent level – in that order. I have only included drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes’ win simulations or a top-20 finish this season.

MLT Rank indicates the driver’s weighted average median lap time ranking at similar racetracks to this weekend’s. The races included in the sample this week are:

– 2023 Las Vegas (Fall) – 20.0%
– 2023 Kansas (Fall) – 20.0%
– 2023 Darlington (Fall) – 20.0%
– 2023 Darlington (Spring) – 20.0%
– 2023 Kansas (Spring) – 10.0%
– 2023 Las Vegas (Spring) – 10.0%

For dominator viability, drivers are ranked on a scale of 0-10 based on their potential to lead laps and win the race if they start at the front. A score of “10” indicates that they are among the favorites to win, while a score of “0” means they have no realistic chance of leading the race.

For flex play viability, drivers are ranked on a scale of 0-10 based on their potential to finish inside the top 15 spots. These drivers are better daily fantasy plays when starting further back in the field, as it allows for optimal place-differential points.

1. Kyle Larson ($14,000) – Win Probability: 23.78% / MLT Rank: 1 / Dominator Viability: 10 / Flex Play Viability: 10
2. Tyler Reddick ($13,000) – Win Probability: 7.92% / MLT Rank: 3 / Dominator Viability: 8 / Flex Play Viability: 10
3. William Byron ($12,500) – Win Probability: 11.88% / MLT Rank: 4 / Dominator Viability: 8 / Flex Play Viability: 7
4. Denny Hamlin ($12,000) – Win Probability: 6.86% / MLT Rank: 2 / Dominator Viability: 9 / Flex Play Viability: 6
5. Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500) – Win Probability: 6.60% / MLT Rank: 6 / Dominator Viability: 8 / Flex Play Viability: 6
6. Christopher Bell ($11,000) – Win Probability: 5.64% / MLT Rank: 9 / Dominator Viability: 7 / Flex Play Viability: 6
7. Ross Chastain ($10,000) – Win Probability: 4.86% / MLT Rank: 10 / Dominator Viability: 6 / Flex Play Viability: 5

Kyle Larson ($14,000) remains the favorite for this weekend, despite potentially having less focus on the race due to the upcoming championship race at Phoenix. Larson has been dominant this year, leading 199 laps and consistently posting top-six median lap times. He also has a high win probability according to Jim Sannes’ simulations.

Tyler Reddick ($13,000) is the clear second choice. He has achieved two top-four finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the past before a race-ending accident last year, which likely prevented him from challenging Larson for the win. Reddick’s transition to Toyota this season gives him improved equipment, making him a strong contender to secure a spot in Phoenix by competing with Larson.

Denny Hamlin ($12,500) has shown potential to challenge for the win based on his quick median average lap times, although his performance in last week’s Las Vegas race (7th place) wasn’t remarkable. However, Hamlin has an exceptional track record at Darlington, which has similar extreme tire wear conditions. He has secured ten wins at Darlington across NASCAR’s top-two series.

William Byron ($12,500), who led 32 laps last week at Las Vegas before slipping to 12th place, is a former winner at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He has consistently demonstrated exceptional speed on similar track types throughout the year. Along with Larson, Reddick, and Hamlin, Byron is a strong candidate for a successful race this weekend.

Christopher Bell ($11,000) showcases impressive speed, reminiscent of drivers like Reddick and Larson, thanks to his background in dirt racing. He came close to challenging Larson for the win at last Sunday’s race in Las Vegas, showcasing his current form.

Ross Chastain ($10,000) seems to be peaking at the right time, having finished fifth in Las Vegas last week. A year ago, he had the third-best median lap time at Homestead-Miami Speedway. It would be ideal for Chastain to qualify outside the top five to maximize place-differential points.

Chris Buescher ($8,200) hasn’t been as effective on tracks with high tire wear, making him a less appealing option. Meanwhile, his teammate Brad Keselowski ($9,000) has consistently performed better on tracks with tire wear, placing him ahead with the eighth-best median blend.

Bubba Wallace ($8,000) has shown potential in races at 1.5-mile tracks this season and has achieved three consecutive top-10 finishes at Darlington. At such a low salary, it would be surprising if he didn’t make it into my single-entry lineup. Ty Gibbs ($7,200) is another valuable option as a fast Toyota driver.

Austin Dillon ($6,500) has an impressive track history at Homestead-Miami Speedway with seven straight top-12 finishes. Considering his decent median times and his skills in dirt racing, he is worth considering for this unique venue.

Other drivers to watch include A.J. Allmendinger ($5,800), who finished third in his first career start at this track a year ago… [HTML tags retained].

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