MLB Hot Stove Mailbag: Bowden’s Insights on Ohtani, Bellinger, Cease Trade, and More

In the first part of my November mailbag, I answered 25 trade proposals and questions sent in by subscribers. But since there were still a lot of good questions left, here’s part two, focusing on top free agents and potential trade targets, as well as thoughts on a big name who could hit free agency in 2024-25. Questions have been edited for clarity and length.

Trade proposal: How about Dylan Cease to the Reds? What might it take to get him with Jonathan India and a minor-league package? — Tim O.
I think a Cease trade to the Reds makes a lot of sense. How about sending India and right-hander Ty Floyd in exchange for him? The White Sox only have Cease under control for two more years and would get a long-term solution at second base in India, plus a starter with similar upside to Cease but more team control. Maybe the Reds would need to sweeten the deal a bit, but there’s definitely a potential trade here.

If the Angels lose Ohtani, who do you see them targeting to replace him in free agency or through a trade? — Ryan C.
The Angels have already lost Ohtani and are aggressively looking to fill that void. They’re trying to land a starting pitcher, bullpen upgrades, a middle-of-the-order bat to “replace” Ohtani, and a corner outfielder. It remains to be seen how successful they’ll be with this wish list, but they are certainly trying.

Could there be a structured deal with Ohtani where he gets $30 million a year plus $1 million per start? — Adam T.
Getting Ohtani for a base salary of $30 million per year is unlikely. He’s likely to command closer to $40 million a year. As for the $1 million per start idea, that could be added as an incentive bonus when he’s able to pitch again, starting in 2025. A base salary of around $40 million with start-based incentives could bring his salary to $50 million per year.

Would it be wise to give Cody Bellinger a long contract considering his injury history? — Jim C.
Bellinger, at 28, is not going to sign for less than a five- to seven-year contract, despite the injury risks. His potential given his dominant performance in 2017 to 2019 and this year makes him a valuable addition. The Yankees seem like a great fit for him, along with an elite starting pitcher such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Will a small-market team like the Orioles or Pirates make a big free-agent signing this year? — Daniel K.
I hope the Orioles sign a big-time starter as they are very close to contending. The Reds are another team that could make a big splash in the free-agent market. As for the Pirates, they’re not quite ready to compete yet, but maybe next offseason.

Trade proposal: Giants trade Michael Conforto and Ross Stripling for Mike Trout and some cash. Realistic? — Danny D.
Not realistic. To consider a trade for Mike Trout, the Angels would likely require a package starting with a top-two prospect from a strong farm system.

Do you think the Giants will make offers for free agents Ohtani and Blake Snell or potentially make a trade for Juan Soto? — Aaron K.
The Giants seem poised to spend significant money on star-level players this offseason. If they can’t land Bellinger, pursuing Soto is a possibility, but it’s unlikely the Padres will trade him within their division.

What’s the probability Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames stay with the Brewers until the trade deadline? — John R.
It’s likely they both get traded this offseason, with a 35 percent chance they stay until the trade deadline and a 65 percent chance they get dealt this winter.

Do you see the Cardinals trading for a starter like Cease, Glasnow, or Bieber? — Scott G.
The Cardinals might outbid the competition for a top free-agent starter or trade for a strong starter, given the depth on their roster and in their farm system. Keep an eye on them during the Winter Meetings.

What will it take for the Astros to re-sign Alex Bregman? — Hugh S.
Bregman will likely receive a deal between Xander Bogaerts and Nolan Arenado’s contracts. However, whether the Astros will be the team to give it to him is uncertain.

Who might take Jake Cronenworth’s contract off the Padres’ hands? — Dan M.
Cronenworth’s disappointing 2023 season makes it hard to trade his contract. However, if he rebounds in the next couple of seasons, anything could happen.

In conclusion, the second part of my November mailbag delved into trade proposals, potential free-agent targets, and contract discussions, shedding light on the intriguing MLB off-season ahead.

Reference

David Rodriguez

David Rodriguez brings the excitement of Major League Baseball to readers. With a deep appreciation for America’s pastime, he covers the latest MLB news, scores, and player achievements, keeping fans up to date with their favorite teams and players.