Making the case for Swiatek and Sabalenka at the WTA Finals

CANCUN, Mexico — As the Hologic WTA Tour’s 2023 season nears its end, the battle for the year-end No.1 ranking is heating up. In an exciting turn of events, the two players in contention will face each other in a highly anticipated Saturday semifinal at the GNP Seguros WTA Finals Cancun. With numerous possibilities in play, the scenario is simple: If No.1 Aryna Sabalenka defeats No.2 Iga Swiatek, she will retain the top spot she claimed after the US Open. On the other hand, if Swiatek wins, she must also win the championship on Sunday to reclaim the No.1 ranking she held for an impressive 75 weeks.

Here is the schedule for Saturday’s semifinals, including a doubles round-robin match that will determine the fourth semifinalist:

• 2:30 p.m. – [7] Gabriela Dabrowski & Erin Routliffe vs. [8] Nicole Melichar-Martinez & Ellen Perez
• 5:00 p.m. – [5] Jessica Pegula vs. [3] Coco Gauff
• 6:00 p.m. – [1] Aryna Sabalenka vs. [2] Iga Swiatek
• [1] Coco Gauff & Jessica Pegula vs. [6] Laura Siegemund & Vera Zvonareva (to finish, 6-3, 1-1) after suitable rest
• TBC vs. [2] Storm Hunter & Elise Mertens

Sabalenka expressed her desire for a showdown against Swiatek following the US Open, stating that she wanted to determine the true No.1 player in the world. “So I would love to play against Iga. That would be a really incredible match,” Sabalenka said. Tennis legend Martina Navratilova, an ambassador for the event, emphasized the importance of the year-end No.1 ranking, describing it as a massive achievement and the biggest tournament of the tour.

Let’s analyze the upcoming matches:

No.1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No.2 Iga Swiatek

The case for Sabalenka: Sabalenka has consistently downplayed the pressure of defending her No.1 ranking, but it is evident that she understands the significance of the situation. Despite a challenging match against Elena Rybakina that was disrupted by rain, Sabalenka managed to compose herself and secure a victory, earning her a spot in the semifinals and maintaining control over the top ranking. Historically, however, defeating Swiatek has not been easy for Sabalenka, as the Polish player holds a 5-3 advantage in their head-to-head matches. This year, they have split victories with Swiatek winning in straight sets at the Stuttgart final and Sabalenka triumphing in three sets at the Madrid final. Sabalenka’s exceptional season includes reaching the semifinals at all four majors and the WTA Finals, a feat only accomplished by Justine Henin in the past 17 years.

The case for Swiatek: Swiatek secured her spot in the semifinals even before playing her third round-robin match, thanks to Marketa Vondrousova’s win over Coco Gauff. However, to have a say in the No.1 conversation, Swiatek needed to win at least one set against Ons Jabeur, and she did just that. Swiatek dominated her opponents throughout the group stage, losing only 14 games in total. Her remarkable consistency is reflected in her record against top 10 players, scoring at least 10 wins for two consecutive seasons, a feat achieved only by Serena Williams in 2013-14. The windy conditions in Cancun favor Swiatek’s game with her spin and ability to navigate gusts.

No. 5 Jessica Pegula vs. No.3 Coco Gauff

The case for Pegula: Pegula’s performance this year has been a remarkable turnaround from her previous WTA Finals appearance. After going winless in singles last year, she defeated top-ranked players Sabalenka, Rybakina, and Sakkari to win the Bacalar Group. Pegula holds a 2-1 advantage in their head-to-head matches against Gauff, but they have split victories this year, with Gauff winning in the Eastbourne quarterfinals and Pegula prevailing in the Montreal quarterfinals. Pegula’s short, compact strokes and solid movement make her a formidable opponent, and she has excelled in the challenging conditions of the tournament.

The case for Gauff: Gauff fought hard in her last round-robin match against Vondrousova, coming back from a set down to secure a victory. Since her early exit at Wimbledon, Gauff has been on a roll, winning 24 of her last 27 matches. She has already made history in Cancun as the first teenager to reach the WTA Finals semifinals since 2009. Gauff’s strong mental game and exceptional talent make her a tough opponent for anyone. However, she needs to improve her serving, as showcased by her 17 double faults against Vondrousova.

With the world closely watching and the top rankings on the line, the stage is set for thrilling and unpredictable semifinal matches at the WTA Finals in Cancun.

Reference

Jessica Roberts

Jessica Roberts serves up the latest in the world of tennis. With a love for the racket sport, she reports on tennis matches, player rankings, and Grand Slam events, ensuring readers stay informed about the tennis world.