Lynx vs Sun Odds, Picks

The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun will face off in Game 1 of their opening round series in the WNBA postseason on Wednesday night at Mohegan Sun Arena. The Sun finished with the third-best record in the league, while the Lynx finished just below .500.

Here’s a breakdown of the key trends for each team, along with analysis and predictions from our Action Network contributors.

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The Lynx had a regular season record of 19-21 straight up and 21-19 against the spread. In their head-to-head matchups with the Sun, the Lynx had a record of 1-3 straight up, but 3-1 against the spread.

Among playoff teams, the Lynx and Sky had the most games as underdogs this season. As underdogs, the Lynx had a 14-12 record against the spread, making them the fourth-most profitable team in the league according to Bet Labs.

The Lynx performed well on the road this season, despite a three-game losing streak to close out the campaign. They had a record of 12-8 against the spread on the road, making them the most profitable team in the league in that spot.

As road underdogs, the Lynx had a record of 9-8 on the moneyline, making them the most profitable team in the league in that spot. This includes their 87-83 victory over the Sun as 12-point underdogs on July 30. A bettor placing $100 bets on the Lynx to win outright as road underdogs would have made $1,710 this season.

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The Sun had a regular season record of 27-13 straight up and 21-18-1 against the spread. Their home and road records against the spread were nearly identical. They had a record of 10-9-1 against the spread at home and 10-9 on the road. However, they were the most profitable team as favorites this season with a 14-12-1 record against the spread.

Against teams with a winning percentage below .500, the Sun were dominant. They had a record of 13-8 against the spread in those games, with a 16.7% return on investment. A bettor placing $100 bets on the Sun against the spread in these matchups would have made $350 over the season.

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Matt Moore and Dano Mataya discussed this matchup on the latest episode of the Buckets podcast, including their betting strategies for the series and Game 1. You can listen to the full episode below for their in-depth analysis.

Dano Mataya’s Game 1 analysis: The Sun have not been great at covering double-digit spreads, so if the spread gets up to 10, it’s worth considering taking the Sun to cover. The Sun’s offense can sometimes struggle, but they have also shown dominance. It’s a tough call, but the data suggests that the Lynx might not be strong enough to compete.

The fact that the over has often hit at home for the Sun (14 out of 20 times) does concern me, as the Lynx have been a solid under team. The Sun’s offense may come alive at home, but they have allowed more points at home compared to previous years.

Another option to consider is betting on the Sun’s team total. However, playoff games can be unpredictable when it comes to free throws at the end of close games. Overall, it’s a close game that may be better to bet on live.

Betting Pick: Play This Live

Matt Moore’s Game 1 analysis: I have projected the total for this game at 164. While I lean towards betting on the over, I don’t have complete confidence in either team’s offense throughout the entire game.

Betting Pick: Stay Away

Bryan Fonseca’s Player Prop: For Game 1 on Wednesday, I’m betting on Alyssa Thomas to exceed her points, rebounds, and assists line of 33.5. Thomas only surpassed this line in one of her last five regular season games, but prior to that, she achieved it in four consecutive games and in nine out of 11 games overall.

For more analysis on player props, check out my preview of Wednesday’s Game 1 matchups here.

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