Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/7/23

2:01 Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first offseason edition of my Tuesday chat!

2:03 Jay Jaffe: This is also very possibly the last one of these I conduct for a few weeks in my current abode, as The Big Move from the apartment where I’ve spent the past 16 years — the everyday professional part of my writing career, as it is — to our new home further south in Brooklyn is scheduled for a week from Saturday.

2:04 Jay Jaffe: It’s all very exciting and stressful and there’s a lot to do, as you can imagine. Since I’ll be without a computer setup for a few days, I’ll have to work ahead, hence the unlikelihood of a chat next week. Anyway, yesterday I wrote about Clayton Kershaw’s surgery and Lance Lynn’s option: blogs.fangraphs.com/with-kershaws-surgery-and-lynns-declined-o

2:05 Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

2:05 Votto: What should I do this offseason? (Assuming that whatever I choose is what makes me happy) Is it to retire? Take a bench role with the Reds (again, assuming they’d have me)? Or sign with another team – and which team?

2:08 Jay Jaffe: Congrats, Joey! If this is it for you, you’ve had a splendid career and you’re headed for Cooperstown as a one-team star. If you have the appetite, however, I’m sure there’s a landing spot for you as a part-time DH/1B/hitting guru/chessmaster. The Blue Jays are a logical fit given your Canadian heritage, the Angels will almost certainly need a new DH, and the Diamondbacks could be a good spot with an up-and-coming team

2:08 Jay Jaffe: That said, if the Reds can squeeze you onto the roster, they might make plenty of sense as the trend arrows appear to be pointing in the right direction.

2:09 Kevin: is being a Roberto Clemente Award nominee or winner a HOF vote consideration for you along with the other obvious performance considerations?

2:10 Jay Jaffe: Not really. It’s a data point regarding a player doing good in his community, but the single most unsavory dog**** candidate of this millennium — from a character standpoint, I should clarify — won one before he went around the bend, so that kind of discounts its utility for me.

2:11 Eddie: What do you seeing NYY doing this offseason (aside from planning on bunting more)? A whole lot of outrage over (mostly) nothing from Hal’s press conference. Most important nugget probably came after when Jack Curry noted Yamamoto is of great interest to them.

2:13 Jay Jaffe: They really do need to make at least one marquee addition, maybe even two. Yoshinobu Yamamoto certainly fills a need, and my guess is that they’ll see what it would take to land Bellinger. I also think they could wind up trading Oswald Peraza, who struggled last year at age 23 but graded out well as a prospect and has six years of control remaining, to help them somewhere else

2:14 Matt VW: Thinking about Counsell’s new contract: is there a case to be made that managers are becoming more valuable as bullpen deployment and maintenance is becoming more elaborate?

2:16 Jay Jaffe: The in-game tactical stuff is still just a fraction of a manager’s job, albeit one that does critically rely on timing and the ability to convert a lot of data into a plan of action that gets a team’s buy-in. The softer factors — ability to lead a disparate bunch of individuals and to act as a face of the franchise for the media — are a huge part of the job as well. MLB manager salaries have long lagged behind those of other coaches, so it’s not surprising that they’re finally catching up. Good on Counsell for using his leverage to help make that happen.

2:17 Hot Stove Chef: Which Division do you think will have the most interesting offseason in terms of trades and FA signings? NL West given the fact that the Giants need some star power, the Padres are run by AJ Preller, the Dodgers will be making a run at Ohtani and need to put together a rotation, and the DBacks are coming off a surprise World Series appearance? AL West because Trader Jerry always has something up his sleeve? AL Central because it’s such a winnable division that each marginal upgrade could make the difference? Or D) Other?

2:18 Jay Jaffe: NL West for the reasons you mention, AL East because the Yankees are the 800-lb gorilla in the room. As for Trader Jerry, the past year has shown that the emperor has no sleeves.

2:18 Benny: What do you make of the argument that Davey Johnson had two thirds of a Hall of Fame managerial career, but also one third of a Hall of Fame playing career, so he should be a Hall of Famer?

2:21 Jay Jaffe: Meh, that’s not really how it works. There are many players in the Hall who had ok managerial careers, at least for awhile, and a lot of good managers who had decent playing careers, the point of the Hall is to recognize somebody who kicked ass in one aspect or the other.

2:22 Guest: Hi Jay. How do you feel a second world series MVP impacts Corey Seager’s HOF case? I know multiple Cy Youngs haven’t helped some cases, but nothing seems more important than being the main cog in winning multiple titles.

2:27 Jay Jaffe: it helps a little, certainly, but he’s significantly behind contemporaries such as Lindor (same age) and Correa (one year younger) in JAWS as well as some like Bogaerts and Turner who are older. This was his first season above 4.0 bWAR since 2017; he needs to be able to stay on the field and perform at a high level to catch up; if he can do that, the postseason stuff will put him over the line

2:27 All I Want for Christmas Is Ale: What’s your favorite seasonal beer around the holidays? As a Californian, I’m a big fan of Firestone Walker’s Cinnamon Dolce Nitro Stout (don’t forget the surge pour!) and will be pouring one out for my first Christmas without an Anchor Steam Christmas Ale.

2:30 Jay Jaffe: Good question. I don’t chase a ton of holiday beers anymore, so I’m as likely to just settle for a favorite dark stout or porter in the colder months. I do love the Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale as a holiday beer

2:30 Boomstick: Loved Kiri Oler’s article on Nelson Cruz upon his retirement from baseball. I learned a lot about Boomstick, from his humanitarian efforts to the mentorship he provided to younger players to the Rangers’ hot dog named after him. Hardball question: have you ever eaten a Boomstick Hot Dog?

2:32 Jay Jaffe: I’ve never eaten a Boomstick hot dog. Not opposed to trying it (as a share) but i’ve never been in a ballpark where one was being served

2:32 1st Ohtani Question of Millions this Offseason: MLBTradeRumors’s three surveyed writers unanimously predicted Shohei to the Dodgers, predicting a 12-year $528M contract that would tie the highest average annual value and take him through his age-40 season. Sir, your thoughts?

2:32 Jay Jaffe: That seems about right but I’d expect him to get both the $ and AAV title belts in one fell swoop

2:32 Captain ACAB: What do you think of Bartolo Colon’s HOF case? Have you written about it yet?

2:34 Jay Jaffe: He’ll be on the ballot this winter. I greatly enjoyed the guy’s career, especially its third act from the time he joined the Yankees, but he doesn’t really have a strong case for the Hall (just 46.2 bWAR) even before we acknowledge that his PED suspension basically kills his candidacy

2:36 Jay Jaffe: And the same goes for Nelson Cruz, by the way. He did a very good job of earning his way back into the game’s good graces, is held in high esteem by teams and teammates, but as I said on Twitter the other day, it would look utterly stupid and ridiculous for the BBWAA to elect a player who was actually suspended for PEDs when clear penalties were in place after rejecting several such as Bonds and Clemens,…