Is expansion good for ACC men’s college basketball?

John GasawayESPN InsiderOct 12, 2023, 08:00 AM ET5 Minute Read

After a month of anticipation, the ACC’s addition of Cal, Stanford, and SMU as members beginning in 2024-25 is finally official. From a high-level perspective, this move benefits both the schools and the conference.

The Pac-12 had already faced turmoil, but Cal and Stanford successfully secured spots in the prestigious ACC. SMU, after almost four decades since receiving the NCAA’s “death penalty,” is thrilled to return to the top tier of Division I.

The ACC’s decision to expand its membership provides insurance in case schools like Florida State, North Carolina, and Clemson decide to seek greener pastures in the future (although reports suggest they were against the expansion). Additionally, the new members bring access to media markets in the Bay Area and Texas, further expanding the ACC’s reach.

These are critical considerations for any major conference, especially when conferences like the Big Ten and Big 12 are raiding the Pac-12, and the SEC has already secured Texas and Oklahoma. Standing still would have been a greater risk for the ACC, making expansion a logical choice.

However, when it comes to men’s basketball programs, this expansion introduces some potential risks.

The Potential for an Unbalanced ACC

Let’s imagine for a moment that we can predict how the major conferences will look in 2024-25. What would we see?

The former Pac-12 has disbanded, with UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington joining the Big Ten, while Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah now compete in the Big 12.

Cal, Stanford, and SMU find themselves in the ACC. While Cal and Stanford have past national championships (in 1959 and 1942, respectively), and SMU reached a Final Four in 1956, these achievements are from a bygone era.

In recent years, these three schools have struggled in the NCAA tournament, with no wins since 2014. Cal and SMU currently rank among the bottom programs in major conferences in terms of performance over the past five seasons, alongside ACC members like Boston College, Wake Forest, Pitt, and Georgia Tech.

Thus, in a year’s time, the ACC will have six members among the bottom 12 nationally in terms of performance over the last five seasons.

Of course, the past five years cannot perfectly predict the future. Just look at Pitt, who had a remarkable 2022-23 season despite their struggles during the previous five years. Perhaps Cal, under the guidance of former Stanford star Mark Madsen, can experience a similar resurgence. After all, like Jeff Capel’s impact at Pittsburgh last season, anything is possible.

However, presently speaking, the ACC did not receive a significant basketball boost from this expansion compared to its rivals. Looking at the past five seasons’ performance, the ACC’s new members have an average adjusted efficiency margin of plus-5.58, considerably weaker than the soon-to-be newcomers in the Big Ten (plus-14.71), Big 12 (plus-14.90), and SEC (plus-17.58).

Times of Uncertainty and Bubble Concerns

A mere four years ago, the ACC dominated men’s basketball. Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke all earned No. 1 seeds in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The buzz surrounded Zion Williamson, the sensational first-year star for Duke. Virginia went on to win the national championship. However, everything changed when the pandemic struck.

Florida State, despite an outstanding regular season, missed the opportunity to showcase their talent in the tournament. Louisville, who had a strong 15-5 ACC record, could have altered their narrative had they won a few NCAA tournament games in recent seasons.

Virginia, since their championship victory, has failed to secure a tournament win. And from 2021 to 2023, the ACC has gone without producing any No. 1 seeds, the longest drought since 1988 to 1990.

The 2022 Final Four showcased a thrilling game between North Carolina and Duke, with the Tar Heels advancing to the national title game. However, UNC failed to make the 2023 tournament despite being ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP poll.

Legends like Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Jim Boeheim, and Mike Brey have retired. Additionally, the ACC finished the 2022-23 season ranked No. 7 nationally at KenPom, behind the Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, Pac-12, and even the Mountain West.

While it’s unlikely that the ACC will degrade into a second-tier basketball conference, ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips has legitimate concerns. The prevalence of weaker opponents in the conference puts ACC bubble teams at risk, especially given the current NCAA tournament selection process. Although there are better ways to select the field, Phillips worries about the bubble teams with the addition of Cal, Stanford, and SMU in a 15-team ACC.

These concerns are undoubtedly pressing, but if the ACC has gained some peace of mind amidst the chaotic realignment, the bubble worries during March Madness are a small price to pay for stability throughout the rest of the year.