How they’ve recovered from slow start

Alex Keble examines the in-form Newcastle United and whether they can surpass their fourth place finish from last season.

Newcastle United

In the fast-paced Premier League, it is easy to assign the “crisis club” label to any struggling team.

When Newcastle lost 3-1 to Brighton & Hove Albion at the beginning of September, pundits immediately sought answers for Eddie Howe’s side, who had only obtained three points from their first four matches.

However, upon reflection, it becomes clear that their tough fixture list was a significant factor. Following their 5-1 victory over Aston Villa on the opening weekend, they faced formidable opponents in Manchester City, Liverpool, and Brighton. Despite narrowly losing 1-0 to City and leading against Liverpool until the 81st minute, these fixtures were challenging and influenced their initial league position.

Since then, Newcastle has been in excellent form, winning four out of their last five Premier League matches. Their only setback was an 89th-minute equalizer from West Ham United, which prevented them from maintaining a perfect record in the past six weeks.

Add to that their extraordinary 4-1 triumph over Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, and the narrative surrounding Newcastle has transformed.

Newcastle’s Ruthless Scoring Propels Their Good Form

Newcastle isn’t a team that necessarily dominates their opponents; their average possession of 54% ranks eighth in the division. While they may not be the most creative side, ranking tenth in shot-creating actions per 90 with 25.2, they are relentless in front of goal.

Currently, Newcastle leads the Premier League in goals scored with 24 and boasts an Expected Goals (xG) of 19.7, the highest in the competition. Although their statistics were somewhat inflated by their 8-0 victory over Sheffield United, highlighting the significance of outlier results, Newcastle’s clinical finishing cannot be denied.

Despite ranking tenth in the league for total shots taken (125), Newcastle has managed to hit the target more frequently than most, with 55 shots on target. This gives them the best shot-on-target percentage in the division at 44%.

Additionally, their conversion rate of 18.9% is the highest, and they have capitalized on the most “big chances” with 20, leading the league with a 52.6% conversion rate for such opportunities.

Alexander Isak’s excellent finishing has played a significant role in their success, as he has already scored six Premier League goals this season. His goals-per-shot ratio has risen from 0.16 to 0.29 in the 2023/24 season.

Similarly, Callum Wilson has been razor-sharp, netting five Premier League goals in just 3.7 full 90-minute appearances. His shot-on-target percentage has increased from 44.3% to an impressive 68.8% this season.

Wilson’s goal v Crystal Palace

Luck may also have played a part in their exceptional scoring record. The number of opposition errors leading to shots against Newcastle has risen from 0.32 to 0.89 per match, tripling the chances of defenders putting their team at risk.

Furthermore, Newcastle ranks at the bottom in Opta’s measure of opposition post-shot Expected Goals (measuring shot quality), with a difference of -2.1. This suggests that luck or poor-quality goalkeeping has helped Newcastle more than any other team, resulting in approximately two additional goals.

Longstaff’s Inclusion Enhances Possession

Before the first international break, Newcastle’s central midfield lacked stability due to Sandro Tonali’s arrival, which altered Bruno Guimaraes’ role and disrupted the team’s balance.

However, Sean Longstaff’s return to the starting lineup in the 1-0 victory over Brentford brought back some control for Newcastle.

Longstaff averages 6.17 progressive passes per 90, significantly higher than Tonali’s 3.88. He also excels in ball recoveries, with 6.0 per 90 compared to Tonali’s 4.1 per 90.

Longstaff’s goal v Crystal Palace

In addition to Longstaff’s impact, it appears that Howe has deliberately adopted a slower possession-based approach this season.

Newcastle currently ranks fourth in the Premier League for build-up attacks with 32, already exceeding more than half of their total from the 2022/23 season when they ranked 11th with 63 build-up attacks.

This more measured approach to ball control is also evident in their carry numbers, which have significantly increased from 316.3 per match last season to 405.2 per match in the 2023/24 season.

Challenges with Intensity

However, Newcastle still needs to address some vulnerabilities, particularly in defense. Their recent run of conceding only three goals in eight matches can be attributed to the low quality of opposition.

Earlier in the season, concerns were raised about Newcastle’s perceived lack of intensity off the ball, and the numbers confirm this as an area of concern.

Newcastle’s passes per defensive action (PPDA), a measure of pressing intensity, has increased from 10.5 to 11.5 this season.

Moreover, their number of interceptions has dropped from 8.8 per 90 to 5.4 per 90.

Newcastle’s slower defensive response allows opponents to exploit their defense more effectively. The percentage of dribblers tackled has decreased from 47.8% to 40.1%, indicating that Newcastle defenders are slow in challenging opponents. Additionally, the number of opposition through balls has nearly doubled from 1.3 to 2.4 per 90.

Correcting these issues won’t be easy. Unlike last season, Newcastle must now contend with the demanding schedule of midweek Champions League fixtures, which may further weaken their defensive capabilities.

New Signings Unavailable

Complicating matters further, Newcastle’s summer transfer window has become increasingly problematic.

Sandro Tonali is likely to face a lengthy ban, Harvey Barnes is injured and will be sidelined until January, and Tino Livramento, who suffered a knee injury and only played 28 senior minutes after recovery before joining Newcastle, has yet to start a Premier League match.

As a result, Newcastle finds themselves with the same squad as last season, but with the added strain of midweek fixtures and heightened competition from teams like Villa.

Challenging for a top-four finish like last season is a formidable task. To defy expectations once again, Howe’s team needs to increase their intensity and hope their forwards continue their remarkable goal-scoring form.