Strange Season for Notre Dame: Examining the Bizarre Schedule and Chances Ahead

What a strange season 2023 has shaped up to be for Notre Dame. Starting early in Week 0 has made the year seemingly fly by. Plenty of teams nationally not only didn’t have a Week 0 affair but also already had their off weeks that Notre Dame is on. That leaves the Irish with just four games to play and two off weeks the rest of the way.

It’s a bizarre schedule that deserves to be examined in order to keep it from happening again. That said, there are four games to play and plenty to play for in regards to Notre Dame.

One of those things is a New Year’s Six bowl game and the chance of winning one for the first time as a program in 30 years. In order to get invited to one, Notre Dame must first win out.

What are the chances of that happening?

Here are the updated ESPN FPI odds for Notre Dame in each of their remaining games as of Oct. 16, 2023.

Oct. 28 vs. Pitt

FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 89.9%

Despite Notre Dame’s dominating win over USC this week, these odds actually went down over a percentage point. That’s most likely because Pitt showed up for the first time all year in beating Louisville this past week. Because of course they did.

Nov. 4 at Clemson

FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 52.6%

What could have been a game between a pair of teams with national championship hopes will instead likely be an elimination game in regards to getting a New Year’s Six bowl game invitation. Both teams have two losses and are out of the College Football Playoff hunt but don’t tell the people in South Bend or the fine folks in South Carolina that this one doesn’t matter next month.

Nov. 18 vs. Wake Forest

FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 93.7%

In his final game at Notre Dame Stadium, Sam Hartman will get to quarterback the Irish against the team he spent the majority of his college career and set countless records with. Without Hartman this year Wake Forest has taken a big step back and is yet to win an ACC game.

Nov. 25 at Stanford

FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 93.8%

Stanford has struggled to a 2-4 mark this season and will almost certainly end 2023 without reaching six wins and bowl eligibility. It deserves credit for its gutsy 29-point comeback this past week at Colorado as they stunned Deion Sanders and the Buffs.

Fun trivia fact for years from now: Notre Dame will almost certainly be the final football opponent Stanford plays against as a member of the Pac 12 (or 10 or 8).

Odds of Winning Out

FPI gives Notre Dame a 42.3% chance of winning each of their four remaining games. Obviously that would mean beating Clemson which is essentially a coin-flip contest while the others are all at nearly 90% or better chances of Notre Dame winning.

Chances to Make the Playoff — Seriously

Despite having two losses, ESPN’s FPI still gives Notre Dame a chance to make the College Football Playoff. How big of one? 0.1%. “SO YOU’RE TELLING ME THERE’S A CHANCE!!!”

Story originally appeared on Fighting Irish Wire.

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