Corbin Burnes, the right-hander for the Brewers, is generating a lot of interest as a potential trade candidate this winter. However, it remains uncertain whether the club will ultimately decide to make a deal. According to a recent report from Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Brewers have been in discussions with various teams about Burnes. Conversely, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that competing clubs believe Burnes is likely to stay in Milwaukee.
For the Brewers, the decision is complex, with compelling arguments on both sides. As reigning division champions, they are poised for another successful season in 2024, despite the setback of losing Brandon Woodruff to injury and subsequent non-tender. However, the emergence of top prospect Jackson Chourio offers promise, potentially mitigating the loss of Woodruff and further weakening their rotation if Burnes were to be traded.
On the other hand, Burnes is entering his final season under arbitration control, with a recent statement indicating that an extension is unlikely. While the Brewers could retain him and extend a qualifying offer in 2024, they may secure a better return by trading him now. Additionally, the risk of injury, as witnessed with Woodruff, poses a potential threat to their future plans.
If Burnes were to become available, he would undoubtedly attract considerable interest, particularly considering the high demand for starting pitching in the offseason. Projected for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM, he presents an enticing opportunity for teams seeking quality pitchers at a reasonable price.
Over the past four seasons, Burnes has amassed 622 1/3 innings, boasting an impressive earned run average of 2.86. His strong performance includes a 30.9% strikeout rate, a 7.1% walk rate, and a 46.4% ground ball rate. With a wins above replacement (WAR) of 17.9, he ranks second only to Zack Wheeler among all pitchers in the league, as per FanGraphs.
While rumors have linked Burnes to the Dodgers, Cubs, and Orioles, it’s likely that numerous other clubs would express interest in acquiring him. The potential for a trade remains uncertain, as the Brewers are likely to engage in discussions and evaluate trade packages before determining the best course of action for the 2024 season and beyond. The need for upgrades in the infield and rotation further complicates the decision, with the latter need becoming more pronounced if Burnes were to depart for another team.
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