College football Week 11 model projections: Predicted scores for every FBS vs. FBS game

This week’s college football projections reveal a peculiar anomaly. According to my model, five games in Week 11 are projected as toss-ups.

One of the intriguing matchups is Missouri vs. Tennessee, which is considered a toss-up in my model and a pick ’em in the betting odds. Additionally, other toss-up games in my model include Virginia Tech at Boston College, Texas State at Coastal Carolina, UAB at Navy, and Washington State at Cal. There are also three games where the projected differential is just half a point: Central Michigan at Western Michigan, Rutgers at Iowa, and Auburn at Arkansas. This week promises to offer some exciting games.

Among the notable games, the Florida State–Miami over and the under in Alabama at Kentucky are my best bets for this week. Now, let’s delve into the projections for the rest of the Week 11 slate.

My model provides point differentials and point totals for every FBS vs. FBS game. It takes into account past performance, returning talent, and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for additional context.

Full Week 11 model projections

XMOV represents the model’s projected margin of victory for the game, with the BetMGM spread at the time of publishing listed to the right. XTOTAL indicates the projected combined point total, with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed to the right of that number at the time of publishing.

(Photo of Nicholas Singleton: G Fiume / Getty Images)