What about the Risks of Making Major Philosophical Changes to Winning Teams?

By Dan Wolken | Sports Seriously

Kenny Smith on How Dangerous the Bucks are After Adding Damian Lillard

NBA analyst Kenny Smith discusses his thoughts on the Bucks’ potential this season after the addition of Damian Lillard in the offseason.

The conventional wisdom in the Eastern Conference circles around a collision course between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks as the top championship contenders. They are considered the Tier 1 teams, while everyone else falls a few rungs down the ladder.

This belief may turn out to be accurate. In terms of recent playoff history and overall stability, the Bucks and Celtics are far ahead of teams like the Philadelphia 76ers or the current construction of the Miami Heat. However, what makes this situation even more intriguing is that both Boston and Milwaukee have made significant changes to their rosters, altering their identities and what made them successful in recent years.

Of course, there are clear positives to pairing Damian Lillard with Giannis Antetokounmpo and adding a talented big man like Kristaps Porzingis to the Celtics’ mix. But what about the risks involved in making such major philosophical changes to teams that have had consistent success with their established playing style and winning approach?

For teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, or Atlanta Hawks, this uncertainty presents an opportunity to challenge for a spot in the Eastern Conference finals.

The case for the Bucks is evident. Over the past five seasons, they have finished with the best record in the East three times and secured the third seed twice. In 2021, they won the championship as the No. 3 seed. While the Bucks were not fundamentally flawed last season with a 58-24 record, their playoff run ended abruptly after Antetokounmpo suffered a back injury early in Game 1 against the Heat. Even though Antetokounmpo returned for Game 4, he wasn’t at 100%, and the damage was already done.

Instead of using the injury as an excuse, the Bucks made changes by hiring first-time head coach Adrian Griffin and trading for Lillard, sacrificing Jrue Holiday in the process. This trade undoubtedly enhances the Bucks’ offensive capabilities, as Lillard is regarded as one of the greatest shooters in NBA history. His presence should create more space for Antetokounmpo and provide a reliable shot-maker in crunch time situations. While Holiday was exceptional for the Bucks, his shooting percentages in the past three playoffs were less impressive.

However, it’s important to consider Lillard’s defensive abilities, which have always left much to be desired. When facing dynamic point guards like Trae Young, Jalen Brunson, or Darius Garland in a playoff series, the bulk of the defensive responsibility will fall on Antetokounmpo and the 35-year-old Brook Lopez. While Milwaukee has several strong defensive players, it remains to be seen if they can sufficiently handle the challenge of containing a dynamic point guard during a postseason series, especially with a first-time head coach at the helm.

The philosophical shift in Boston is equally interesting and risky. For the past few seasons, the Celtics’ winning formula relied on their defensive prowess, versatility on the perimeter, and depth. They had a strong presence beyond the arc and the ability to bring in four bench players who could easily bomb threes, ensuring a smooth transition for the starters to finish the job.

However, their big moves to acquire Porzingis and add Holiday through the Lillard trade have altered the team’s dynamics. The Celtics now possess the best top-four in the East with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Porzingis, and Holiday. But these acquisitions came at a cost. Marcus Smart, a crucial part of their identity and defensive capabilities, now plays for the Memphis Grizzlies. Malcolm Brogdon and Rob Williams, who were important contributors defensively, are now in Portland.

The Celtics, who previously had great depth and relied on three-point shooting, are now limited outside of their top six players. Additionally, one of those top players, Al Horford, is 37 years old. While Holiday is an upgrade from Smart, it remains to be seen if the frontcourt of Porzingis, Horford, and Luke Kornet can provide the rebounding and shot-blocking support that solidified Boston’s defense in previous seasons. The lack of depth and three-point shooting also magnifies the impact of any potential injuries.

The success of Boston’s new approach will likely hinge on Porzingis’ ability to play winning basketball on both ends of the floor. In his eight-season career, he has only played 10 postseason games, all with the Mavericks. His contributions to those teams were overshadowed, leading Dallas to essentially trade him to the Washington Wizards for a minimal return. While Porzingis showcased his talent in Washington with a career-high average of 23.2 points, doing so on a team with a losing record is far different from what will be expected of him in Boston.

If Boston can maximize Porzingis’ potential, they will prove their critics wrong. However, if he fails to live up to expectations, it opens up an opportunity for another team to contend in the East.

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Dan Wolken on X @DanWolken

Reference