Celebrating Clayton Kershaw’s Unyielding Greatness Beyond October Stumble

A scout sent a text message before the National League Division Series to discuss the condition of Clayton Kershaw’s shoulder.

“Did you hear that Kershaw’s shoulder is still causing him problems?” he wrote.

Conversations with scouts often resemble high school gossip, except instead of talking about teenage romance, they focus on injured body parts like shoulders and elbows.

Well, it’s no surprise that Kershaw’s shoulder isn’t in ideal shape. We all know he spent over a month on the injured list this summer due to shoulder soreness. He made a comeback on August 10th and performed well with a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular-season starts. However, the Statcast data revealed that his “fastball” averaged between 88.2 and 88.8 mph in each of his September starts.

“I watched his start against the Giants on September 23rd,” the scout wrote. “It was difficult to see where his stuff was. I have immense respect for him, as their hitters struggled to adapt to his diminished abilities. I will be surprised if he performs similarly against a stronger team.”

Although the D-backs aren’t considered an elite offensive club, they were more than prepared for Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw, who has had a checkered postseason history, delivered one of the worst starts in postseason history during the Dodgers’ 11-2 loss.

Here’s how it went down: Double, single, single, double, homerun, groundout (woo!), walk, double, and then he was removed from the game.

Only three other starters have allowed six or more runs while recording one or zero outs in the postseason – the A’s Gil Heredia (Game 5, 2000 ALDS), the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson (Game 4, 2019 NLCS), and the Braves’ Mike Foltynewicz (Game 5, 2019 NLDS).

So, here come the critics with their postseason pitchforks, ready to tell us that Clayton Kershaw can’t perform in October. And to be fair, there have been many instances where Kershaw has struggled in October. However, there have also been times when he has excelled in the postseason.

That’s the beauty of 194 1/3 postseason innings – anything can happen.

Kershaw had a redemption story in 2020, but skeptics may dismiss it due to the peculiar pandemic postseason.

Let’s consider that maybe, just maybe, the Dodgers have a long history of relying too heavily on Kershaw’s left arm. This particular start, his 12th career Game 1 start, was a cry for help from a Dodgers team that lost three-fifths of its already questionable Opening Day rotation.

Kershaw led the team this year with 131 2/3 innings, the lowest total ever for the innings leader of a division winner. This wasn’t what was expected for a 35-year-old pitcher whose workload has been carefully managed in recent years. The Dodgers were the first division winner to not have a pitcher start 25 games. (Congratulations?)

The Dodgers are attempting to navigate this postseason with a depleted rotation. Their bullpen accounted for 44.6% of their regular-season innings pitched, the highest percentage among postseason teams. If manager Dave Roberts’ public plans are accurate, a deep postseason run would require an even larger bullpen contribution, with quick hooks and piggybacks becoming the norm.

Kershaw demonstrated the fragility of this plan. His six hits in the game had exit velocities ranging from 98.8 mph to 115.7 mph. As the scout predicted, Kershaw’s diminished abilities will not deceive anyone in October. The level of planning and preparation in the postseason is too precise.

Given Kershaw’s age, his contemplation of retirement in the past, and his poor performance in this crucial Game 1, it’s possible that we may have witnessed not only the worst start of his postseason career but also his last. If that’s the case, at least we can avoid future debates about whether the pitcher with the BEST CAREER ERA+ EVER (minimum 2,000 innings) is good at his job or not.

But let’s save those arguments for previous versions of postseason Kershaw. The Kershaw we just witnessed has almost 3,000 career innings under his belt and a shoulder that is likely comparable to string cheese. He was the Game 1 starter not because he’s the vintage Clayton Kershaw, but because the Dodgers were ill-prepared for the challenges of the 2023 season.

On a night like this, the real question is not whether Clayton Kershaw is built for October. It’s whether the Dodgers are built for October.