Brewers’ Craig Counsell contract is expiring. Will he go to New York?

The day the Milwaukee Brewers were hoping would never come – or, at least, not this soon – is here.

Craig Counsell is about to become a free agent.

The man with the most wins as a manager in franchise history, who has overseen the most successful on-field run the Brewers have ever had and is regarded around the league as one of the best in the game, is now free to negotiate and sign anywhere he wants as of Wednesday, when his contract with Milwaukee expires.

Counsell, of course, has already begun the job hunt process. The Cleveland Guardians and New York Mets were already granted permission to interview him before his contract expired. The Houston Astros have also expressed interest, according to a source, but the seriousness of their pursuit is unclear.

Counsell’s decision at this point is truly unpredictable.

The Mets are expected to make a lucrative offer, and the Guardians have shown a willingness to pay top dollar for a manager, as they did with Terry Francona.

Internally, the Brewers find themselves in a complicated situation during this process.

Throughout the year, the general consensus among Milwaukee personnel was that Counsell was unlikely to go to New York. Many believed that Counsell, who has personal ties to Milwaukee, would be more inclined to step away from the game rather than take a position in New York.

However, the possibility of Counsell going to the Mets is gaining traction throughout the league.

The Athletic reported last week that Counsell is motivated by the opportunity to elevate the market for managers’ salaries around MLB. This is a common sentiment in conversations throughout the league.

There is no consensus on what Counsell will ultimately decide, but it is clear that he has no intention of taking a hometown discount just to stay with the Brewers.

The uncertainty surrounding Counsell’s decision extends to the Brewers front office, which has already begun the process of interviewing potential managerial replacements, according to a source. The organization is experiencing significant turnover in both the front office and team staff.

The Brewers are still in the mix

Don’t count out the Brewers just yet.

Counsell still has an interest in staying in Milwaukee. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, he declined an extension offer from the Brewers because it did not meet his expectations in the open market.

There are many in the industry who remain optimistic that Counsell will re-sign with the Brewers, as long as they match the offers he receives from other teams. With the Mets and their owner Steve Cohen involved, those offers are likely to be at the top of the market.

WHAT WE KNOW: Will Craig Counsell return as the Milwaukee Brewers manager?

Whether the Brewers are willing to pay to retain their manager is the key factor in Counsell’s decision.

Retaining Counsell is not just about winning, but also about sending a message and proving that the Brewers can compete financially with bigger-market teams.

Brewers have the chance to compete in the top-tier market

Milwaukee has never been able to compete with the big-market teams in free agency, but this time it’s different.

This is not a situation where the asking price is hundreds of millions of dollars. Milwaukee can afford to pay Counsell what he’s asking, which is likely only a few million dollars more than what they were already paying him.

If the Brewers lose Counsell to another team, it would not be due to financial constraints. Over the years, the Brewers have paid similar salaries to players who were not expected to be stars.

The Brewers’ best chance of keeping Counsell is by offering him a raise comparable to what they pay replacement-level players on the field.

While this would be more than any manager currently makes, it is not exorbitant in the economics of baseball.

The Brewers have consistently expressed their desire to have Counsell return as their manager.

“Clearly we want him back,” Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio said prior to the team’s wild-card series against Arizona.