Bowden: MLB teams — Think long and hard before signing a starting pitcher to a 9-figure deal

The 2025 free-agent starting pitching market is flush with top-tier talent, and teams must carefully weigh the potential rewards and considerable risks as they compete to sign coveted arms. The leader of the market, Shohei Ohtani, is likely to be sidelined until 2025 after undergoing elbow surgery. However, beyond Ohtani, there is a strong second-tier that features pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Aaron Nola. These pitchers are projected to receive lucrative contracts between $120 million and $220 million, with teams expected to guarantee all four between $500 million and $750 million.

None of these contracts are expected to be insured due to the high costs of coverage. If any of these pitchers end up suffering a career-altering injury or decline sooner than expected, it is the teams that will bear the full financial burden. While some big-dollar, multiyear signings of top starters have worked out well, there are many that haven’t.

Take for example, Jacob deGrom’s five-year, $185 million deal with the Rangers, which was derailed by Tommy John surgery. Similarly, the Yankees’ six-year, $162 million contract with Carlos Rodón has been marred by injuries. Chris Sale’s five-year, $145 million deal with the Red Sox has also been disappointing, with a string of injuries affecting his performance. The Nationals’ deals with Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and the Red Sox’s agreement with David Price have followed a similar pattern, resulting in significant financial losses for the teams.

It’s undeniable that not all of these high-value contracts have panned out for the teams involved. Despite some contracts leading to World Series victories, the financial burden on teams due to injuries and declines in performance cannot be ignored. Therefore, while the potential rewards are tantalizing, the considerable risks associated with these contracts should not be overlooked.

Reference

David Rodriguez

David Rodriguez brings the excitement of Major League Baseball to readers. With a deep appreciation for America’s pastime, he covers the latest MLB news, scores, and player achievements, keeping fans up to date with their favorite teams and players.