Alexander Shevchenko vs Ugo Humbert

Aug 9, 2021; Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Ugo Humbert of France plays a shot against Lorenzo Sonego of Italy in first round play at Aviva Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

We’re at the finals of the ATP 250 event in Metz. Local favorite Ugo Humbert will face off against Alexander Shevchenko for the championship. Humbert is aiming for a fourth ATP title, while Shevchenko is looking to claim his first on the ATP Tour. At LWOT, we’re providing our prediction and analysis for the final. Who do you think will win in Metz?

ATP Metz Final Prediction

Ugo Humbert vs Alexander Shevchenko

Head-to-head: First meeting

The fact that both players have thrived in the conditions in Metz is truly impressive. Despite the slow courts, each player has effectively used their aggressive style to dominate. Humbert started as the favorite in each match, and his run has been nothing short of remarkable. The 25-year-old defeated Dominic Thiem in a high-quality match, showed professionalism against Harold Mayot in the quarterfinal, and then crushed a fatigued Fabio Fognini in the semifinal.

Shevchenko’s journey to his first ATP final has been quite surprising. His best results had previously come on faster surfaces, but the 22-year-old has looked very comfortable in the conditions in Metz. His standout win came in straight sets against compatriot and former Australian Open and US Open semifinalist Karen Khachanov. His other performances throughout the week have also been strong.

The playing styles of both men are nearly identical, with a heavy reliance on their powerful serves and forehands. The determining factor will be who can execute that style under the pressure of a final. Humbert is likely to have a slight edge in those circumstances. Despite enjoying a solid season overall, this is still his first final in over two years, and there will undoubtedly be some nerves. However, his previous experience is likely to be an important factor.

Shevchenko’s level often fluctuates, making it hard to predict what to expect from him. The experience of a first final may mean Humbert is able to hold his nerve slightly better when it counts. The presence of a home crowd to cheer him toward victory may also be crucial.
Prediction: Humbert in 3

Main Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports