College football picks against the spread: Stewart Mandel’s Week 11 picks

Am I actually turning things around? Despite a rocky start to the season, I’ve made a strong comeback with a 14-7-1 record over the past two weeks.

But could my luck change from here?

Last week: 7-3-1 against the spread.
Season: 55-53-2.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times Eastern and Saturday unless otherwise listed.)

Could there be some unexpected surprises in store for this week’s games? Michigan facing its first significant challenge, Penn State’s home-field advantage, and their offense suddenly springing to life. However, history tells us that Penn State doesn’t typically win games of this nature.

Michigan 21, Penn State 16
The pick: Michigan -4.5

No. 8 Alabama (-10.5) at Kentucky, noon (ESPN)

Alabama may have had a convincing win last week, but let’s not forget their less impressive performances this season. Although they’re likely to win comfortably, they’re not infallible, especially against teams like Texas A&M and Arkansas.

Alabama 28, Kentucky 20
The pick: Kentucky +10.5

No. 13 Tennessee (-1.5) at No. 14 Missouri, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)

Surprisingly, the Vols are favored in this match, but Mizzou can’t be underestimated after their previous performances against strong opponents. With star receiver Luther Burden’s status uncertain, the Tigers have a strong chance, especially since they’re playing at home.

Missouri 30, Tennessee 24
The pick: Missouri +1.5

No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington (-9.5), 3:30 p.m. (Fox)

Washington’s recent performances indicate a potential struggle, but they have a good chance against Utah. While not likely to be a runaway, it’s expected to be a closely fought match.

Washington 35, Utah 28
The pick: Utah +9.5

Miami at No. 4 Florida State (-14.5), 3:30 p.m. (ABC)

Despite Miami’s offensive and defensive capabilities, their recent results don’t reflect their potential. Conversely, the return of star wide receiver Keon Coleman is expected to boost FSU, making them the likely victors.

Florida State 28, Miami 10
The pick: Florida State -14.5

West Virginia at No. 17 Oklahoma (-12.5), 7 p.m. (Fox)

While the Sooners have shown signs of regression recently, their home advantage is likely to see them through. West Virginia, despite their ground game strength, is unlikely to emerge victorious in Norman.

Oklahoma 34, West Virginia 20
The pick: Oklahoma -12.5

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia (-10.5), 7 p.m. (ESPN)

Georgia is poised for victory against Ole Miss, whose performances don’t indicate a significant challenge. The strong defensive presence of Georgia is likely to pose difficulties for the Ole Miss quarterback.

Georgia 26, Ole Miss 14
The pick: Georgia -10.5

Florida at No. 19 LSU (-14), 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)

LSU appears to have the upper hand against Florida, whose middling offense doesn’t match up to LSU’s defensive capabilities.

LSU 38, Florida 27
The pick: Florida +14

No. 7 Texas (-10) at TCU, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)

While Texas has the advantage, TCU is fighting to make a statement, making this an exciting and unpredictable matchup.

Texas 24, TCU 10
The pick: Texas -10

USC at No. 6 Oregon (-15.5), 10:30 p.m. (Fox)

Oregon’s recent victories point towards a strong performance against USC, making them the likely victors.

Oregon 56, USC 28
The pick: Oregon -15.5

Mandel’s Upset Special
Iowa State (-7.5) at BYU, 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)

BYU has the potential to upset Iowa State in this late-night matchup, despite their mixed performance this season.

BYU 17, Iowa State 14
The pick: BYU +7.5

(Photo of Jordan Travis and Keon Coleman: James Gilbert / Getty Images)