New Buck Damian Lillard leads overrated draft picks

Special to Yahoo Sports: Overrated Fantasy Basketball Draft Picks

As the NBA season approaches, fantasy basketball managers are eagerly preparing for their annual ritual. While selecting star players is exhilarating, it is equally important to avoid potential busts. Some players may have a reputation that resonates with fans, but their fantasy production may not live up to the hype.

Let’s uncover the overrated fantasy options that should be avoided, based on their current average draft position.

Round 1: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 11.3)

In the first round, let’s focus on a player who may not be considered overrated due simply to injury concerns, such as Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, or Joel Embiid. Although Lillard can provide first-round value, he is no longer the clear No. 1 option on his team. Investing a first-round pick in a 33-year-old player with a declining role may not be wise. With Giannis Antetokounmpo as his teammate, Lillard’s scoring and assist numbers could decrease. It’s worth noting that Antetokounmpo has played fewer minutes than Lillard in the past seasons, as Milwaukee aims to keep players fresh for the playoffs.

Round 2: Mikal Bridges, Brooklyn Nets (ADP: 19.4)

While Bridges had an impressive season with the Brooklyn Nets, his fantasy value seems overrated for a second-round pick. He excels defensively, but his numbers on that end of the court do not reflect his skill. Additionally, his scoring is efficient but lacks a high number of three-pointers. His rebounding and passing abilities are also underwhelming.

Round 3: Fred VanVleet, Houston Rockets (ADP: 28.3)

VanVleet has consistently provided top-30 value in fantasy basketball over the past four seasons. However, his role in the Houston Rockets’ offense may change due to better floor spacing and a more balanced offensive approach. With a potential decrease in minutes, VanVleet’s upside may be limited.

Round 4: Jrue Holiday, Boston Celtics (ADP: 41.1)

Holiday was a valuable player for the Milwaukee Bucks last season while Khris Middleton was injured. However, with Middleton’s return and Kristaps Porziņģis also sharing offensive duties, Holiday’s offensive volume is expected to decrease. Although his defensive contribution may increase, his age is a moderate concern.

Round 5: Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 55.7)

Allen is considered a safe, high-floor center, but his upside is limited. In this round, there are other players like Zion Williamson, Tyrese Maxey, Paolo Banchero, or Josh Giddey who offer higher ceilings and more ball-handling opportunities. While centers are important in fantasy basketball, it may be better to explore other options in this round.

Round 6: Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 68.4)

Lopez’s perceived upside in the sixth round is largely based on his performance last season. However, with Khris Middleton’s return and Damian Lillard joining the team, Lopez’s role and minutes may decrease. Additionally, if the defensive coverage strategy changes, it could impact his shot-blocking potential.

Round 7: Buddy Hield, Indiana Pacers (ADP: 81.6)

Hield’s potential is limited as he is expected to come off the bench behind other players on the Indiana Pacers. His main value lies in his three-point shooting, which may not be as valuable in points leagues. Furthermore, there are usually sharpshooters available on the waiver wire who can be streamed in for specific matchups.

Round 8: Derrick White, Boston Celtics (ADP: 85.0)

With Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis on the team, White’s potential is capped. He was a fringe fantasy starter last season, and it is unlikely that his role will significantly change this year. Considering his limited upside, it may be best to select him outside of the top 100 picks.

Round 9: Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings (ADP: 106.4)

Murray’s fantasy value last season relied on three-pointers and free-throw percentage, which may not be sustainable given his limited opportunities. As long as De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are healthy, Murray will be the third option at best. Even if those two players miss time, there are other players on the team who have play styles that could lead to increased usage. It may be easier to find three-point shooting on the waiver wire if needed.

Round 10: Bobby Portis, Milwaukee Bucks (ADP: 111.4)

Portis is an effective backup behind Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but his potential is capped due to his role. While injuries could provide him with more opportunities, it is not advisable to rely on that possibility for a round 10 selection. Other players with higher minutes and usage potential may be a better choice in this round.