Oil still rules, alas



Electric Vehicles and Green Energy Fuels: Impact on Geopolitics and Oil Markets

The rise of electric vehicles and green energy has been transforming the transportation and power sectors, with record amounts of renewable energy generation. However, amidst this shift, oil remains a dominant force in shaping geopolitics and sparking conflicts in the Middle East.

The recent conflict between Israel and Hamas, which has escalated into an Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip, has highlighted the influence of oil on global responses. While the attacks were not directly connected to oil, they have implications for world powers and their alliances in the Middle East.

President Biden’s reelection odds are directly affected by the outcome of this war, which in turn could impact the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China’s considerations of invading Taiwan. Fossil fuels have become central to an intensifying struggle between authoritarianism and Western-style democracy.

Iran, one of the largest oil producers globally, plays a crucial role in this struggle. As a sworn enemy of Israel, Iran supports and funds militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah with its oil revenue. While it’s unclear if Iran had a direct role in the recent attacks, it benefits from any weakening of Israel and its alliances in the region.

An escalation in the conflict could have dire consequences for oil markets. The United States, therefore, has rushed military assets to the region to warn Iran of potential consequences. Republican Senator Lindsay Graham has even threatened military action to knock Iran out of the oil business.

For President Biden, this would be a nightmare scenario with implications for his domestic standing. Rising oil prices during the year leading up to the 2024 election could worsen inflation and damage his chances of reelection.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes for Biden’s defeat in 2024, as former President Donald Trump has promised to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Putin benefits from rising oil prices, as it is Russia’s primary export. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also closely observing the situation, especially regarding US opposition in case of a Chinese assault on Taiwan.

The United States is now the top oil producer globally and is less dependent on Middle Eastern oil compared to the past. However, supply shortages and infrastructure limitations could still lead to tight supplies and high prices during a real crisis.

The future is uncertain, and the outcome of various conflicts will shape geopolitical dynamics and oil markets. While the United States holds significant power and resources, Biden’s miscalculations on Iran and the Middle East highlight the complexities and challenges in this region. Oil continues to play a significant role in global politics, and its influence cannot be ignored.

Original Source: Yahoo Finance


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