Re-doing the Giants’ offseason: Was there a way to get them to the World Series?

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As the President of Baseball Operations for the San Francisco Giants in November 2022, you find yourself in a reflective state after an unsuccessful season. While on a coastal trip to clear your mind, you stumble upon an antique store. Compelled by an unseen force, you decide to step inside. Rummaging through relics of the past proves oddly soothing. However, one item catches your eye—a Magic 8 Ball, still in its box. Memories of your childhood flood back as you take it and give it a shake. “Will Aaron Judge sign with us?” you inquire. The answer is disheartening: “Outlook not so good.” Undeterred, you try again. “Should we sign Mitch Haniger to acquire the right-handed power hitter we need?” The 8 Ball’s response is surprising: “Mitch Haniger will have a miserable season, both in terms of injuries and production. He’ll have the worst adjusted OPS of his career and won’t make up for it with his glove.” Something is not right. This Magic 8 Ball seems to possess answers beyond the usual 20 responses. Curiosity piqued, you ask about Carlos Rodón. The bleak response confirms your suspicions—this is no ordinary toy. It predicts a disappointing season for Rodón, with just 14 starts and an ERA close to 7.00. However, it hints at a potential benefit in the long run. Armed with this newfound power, you set out to build your roster for the 2023 season. With the Magic 8 Ball’s guidance, you believe you can turn the Giants around. But before you start, there are some ground rules. This thought experiment requires plausibility. You are limited to considering players who were moved or perceived to be available in the previous offseason. No unrealistic trades are allowed. Armed with your cheat code, you are determined to create a watchable Giants team, secure a postseason spot, and even win a World Series. The returning players on the roster will be key to addressing the team’s issues. After all, even with a literal Magic 8 Ball, the Giants must improve the existing core to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers. So, let’s see if we can overcome this challenge and build a winning team behind the mysterious Magic 8 Ball.

As we proceed, keep in mind that the exercise won’t always be as simple as adding or subtracting WAR. It’s not just about replacing players but also considering playing time and contributions. Ready? Let’s dive into the details.

Catcher:
Let’s start with the catcher position. Despite a disappointing end to the season, Patrick Bailey shows promise both defensively and offensively. His trajectory is on the rise, making him a valuable asset going forward. While you might have considered trading Marco Luciano for Sean Murphy, the development of Bailey makes it a questionable move. Plus, the Oakland A’s demanded Kyle Harrison instead, making it a moot point. Another option was signing Gary Sánchez, whose defensive stats were surprisingly impressive for the San Diego Padres. He could potentially add an extra win or two compared to Blake Sabol, but Sabol’s potential is worth holding onto for the future. Therefore, no changes are necessary at this time.

First Base:
Surprisingly, first base turned out to be the most valuable position for the Giants in terms of Wins Above Average. LaMonte Wade Jr. and his teammates performed admirably. Wade took the majority of starts, followed by Wilmer Flores. This platoon system worked well, with Wade’s ability to get on base and Flores emerging as the team’s best hitter. The Giants deserve credit for trusting Wade and seeing it pay off. Looking at the list of first basemen who surpassed Wade in WAR, none were available for trade except Carlos Santana. However, Santana’s slight edge in WAR is negligible. Keeping Wade, who is under contract, is the wise choice. Therefore, no changes are needed here either.

Second Base:
Thairo Estrada was a surprising success story, surpassing expectations and proving to be a viable starter at second base. While Baseball Savant’s ranking of him as the second-best defender in baseball might be dubious, there’s no denying his excellent defensive skills. He was part of the solution rather than the problem in the 2023 season. Comparing his WAR to other second basemen, no available options surpass him. Luis Arraez could have been a potential trade, but Logan Webb’s value is too high to sacrifice. Therefore, Estrada remains the primary second baseman.

Stay tuned for more insights into building a winning Giants team with the help of the Magic 8 Ball. The journey to a World Series victory begins with strategic roster decisions guided by the enigmatic toy’s predictions. Can you lead the Giants to triumph and prove that a Literal Magic 8 Ball has the power to shape the future of baseball? The challenge awaits.

Reference

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