Discover the Surprising Strength of the Orioles Rotation for an SEO-friendly and Engaging Insight

The Baltimore Orioles have been defying expectations throughout the entire 2023 season. At the start of the season, Fangraphs gave them just a 1.3% chance of winning the AL East, with a projected record of 76-86, making them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. However, the Orioles proved the odds wrong by achieving a remarkable 101-win season, placing them at the top of not only their division but the entire American League.

Despite their regular season success, the Orioles faced doubts in the postseason race. They were given a mere 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, worse than the Braves, Dodgers, Astros, and even their division rivals, the Blue Jays. The primary concern revolved around the club’s pitching staff.

While the loss of closer Felix Bautista due to Tommy John surgery is a blow to the bullpen, much of the worry regarding the Orioles lies with their starting rotation. The numbers from their rotation this season have been mediocre, ranking just 16th in fWAR among all teams and being better than only the Dodgers among the playoff teams in this category. Other metrics also do not paint a promising picture, as they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.

When examining the individual pitchers in the Orioles’ rotation, it becomes clear why their overall numbers are underwhelming. Throughout the season, they relied on nine different starters: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means, Bradish, and Wells had above-average seasons based on ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen.

Given the mediocrity of their rotation, one might think that the Orioles’ decision to make only minor tweaks during the offseason, such as replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major mistake. However, the reality is more complex, as the Orioles are well-positioned for success in the postseason and beyond.

The primary reason for their optimism is the considerable improvement of their starting rotation throughout the season. The return of Means in September added a quality mid-rotation option and someone who can contribute in later rounds of the postseason while also being a key player in the club’s 2024 rotation. Additionally, several pitchers made significant strides in the second half. Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer all ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All-Star break, with Bradish and Rodriguez even placing in the top five. No other team had three starters this effective in preventing runs during the second half, with only the Brewers and Rangers having two.

One standout success story is Bradish, who the Orioles acquired in a trade with the Angels. After a challenging rookie season, Bradish has excelled in 2023, showing improvement in various aspects of his game. His impressive peripherals, such as strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball rate, and barrel rate, have led to a 2.83 ERA that ranks highly among American League starters.

Rodriguez’s success is almost as evident. After struggling in his first big league action, he found his footing in Triple-A and returned to the majors as a transformed pitcher. His second-half performance, including a low ERA and FIP, a strong strikeout rate, low walk rate, and high groundball rate, makes him one of the most effective starters in the league during that period.

Kremer has had a somewhat down year compared to his performance in 2022, but his second-half numbers have reaffirmed his abilities. With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer leading the Orioles’ rotation in the ALDS, they have a chance to recover from their Game 1 loss to the Rangers and make a comeback. Furthermore, the Orioles have a solid foundation for their rotation in 2024, as the trio mentioned above, along with Means, are all under team control.

Having four reliable and above-average starters locked in for 2024 puts the Orioles in a much stronger position than the previous year. This gives General Manager Mike Elias and the front office confidence in seeking another pitcher to complete the rotation for the upcoming season, especially with a promising free agent market available.