7 things that will decide the NLCS between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks

Raise your hand if you had this series in your bracket. No? Well, that just makes it even more intriguing. It’s time to step back from the surprises of the past two weeks and dive into the matchup that will determine the National League pennant and one World Series berth. The 90-win Philadelphia Phillies come in as the favorites and are more likely to have reached the NLCS. They started slowly but have been on fire since June 1, going 65-42, a 98-win pace. With wins against the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves, the Phillies are aiming for a second straight pennant. Their opponents, the Arizona Diamondbacks, were a youthful team that lost 110 games just two years ago. They had a hot start, leading the NL West, but struggled in July and August before earning a playoff spot. Now, they are four wins away from their second World Series appearance. Whether or not this NLCS was expected, let’s break down seven key factors that will determine who moves on to the World Series.

1. The Postseason Performance of Harper and Turner
Harper has been a standout player for the Phillies in the postseason, with a batting average of .354, an on-base percentage of .448, and a slugging percentage of .768, along with nine home runs. However, this year, he hasn’t been the best hitter on his own team. Shortstop Trea Turner, the newest addition to the Phillies with a $300 million contract, is batting .500 in the playoffs so far, with two home runs and four stolen bases. Navigating the Phillies lineup is difficult, but limiting at least one of these top hitters will be crucial to beating Philadelphia.

2. The Impact of Corbin Carroll for the Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have their own standout hitter in right fielder Corbin Carroll. Known for his speed and power, Carroll has posted impressive numbers in the playoffs, with a .412 batting average, a .565 on-base percentage, and a .824 slugging percentage, along with two home runs and two stolen bases. Carroll is a threat to make a difference at any moment in the game, both with his bat and his aggressive baserunning.

3. The Diamondbacks’ Power Hitting Ability
While the Diamondbacks didn’t rely on home runs during the regular season, their ability to hit for power could be crucial in the playoffs, where pitching becomes tougher. Young catcher Gabriel Moreno, who has battled through injuries this month, has already hit three home runs. Power threats Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have also performed well in the playoffs. Additionally, speedy center fielder Alek Thomas and defense-first shortstop Geraldo Perdomo have surprised with their home run hitting abilities. Homers could be vital for the Diamondbacks’ offense against the high-octane Phillies bullpen.

4. The Battle of the Starting Pitchers
The Phillies’ Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have proven themselves in both the regular season and the playoffs. The Diamondbacks’ top starters, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, may not have the same fame, but they have had excellent seasons. Gallen is likely to finish in the top five for the NL Cy Young for the second straight season, with numbers similar to Wheeler’s. Kelly, a late-bloomer, has been a steady starter for the Diamondbacks. The performances of both pairs of pitchers will be crucial in determining the series outcome.

5. The Impact of the Phillies’ Home Crowd
One cannot ignore the raucous Philadelphia crowd at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have one of the best home-field advantages in baseball, with a 10-2 record at home in the past two postseasons. Getting ahead early or keeping the Phillies’ offense at bay could help the Diamondbacks quiet the crowd and increase their odds of winning.

6. The Aggressiveness of the Managers with their Bullpen
Phillies manager Rob Thomson has been decisive and proactive with his pitching staff in October. He quickly turns to his best arms in crucial moments and has shown trust in his bullpen. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo has fewer proven arms but will likely need to spread the load across his bullpen. The performances of relievers Kevin Ginkel, closer Paul Sewald, and left-handers Joe Mantiply and Andrew Saalfrank will be critical, especially in getting key hitters like Harper out.

7. Other X-Factors
There are always unexpected factors in a series that can swing the outcome. These can include individual player performances, defensive plays, strategic decisions, and more. Both teams have players who could step up and make a difference in crucial moments. Although difficult to predict, these X-factors could play a significant role in determining the outcome of the series.

So, buckle up and get ready for a thrilling NLCS. Both the Phillies and the Diamondbacks have proven themselves worthy of being here, and now it’s time to see who will move on to the World Series.

Reference

David Rodriguez

David Rodriguez brings the excitement of Major League Baseball to readers. With a deep appreciation for America’s pastime, he covers the latest MLB news, scores, and player achievements, keeping fans up to date with their favorite teams and players.